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The Next Oil Price Spike May Cripple The Industry

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Two diametrically opposed views dominate the current debate about where the oil price is heading. On the one hand, there is the view that the price of oil will be “ lower for longer ”, or even “ lower forever ”, as the electrification of transport will eat away at oil demand more and more while, at the same time, technological innovation ( shale in particular ) will greatly increase economically recoverable resources. Market Background Oil Opinion

2017 163

Oil Prices Ravaged By Financial Turmoil

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Oil prices fell back suddenly over the last few trading sessions, dragged down by some forces beyond the oil market. dollar has helped drive up crude prices for weeks , but that came to an abrupt halt last week. A rebound for the greenback led to a steep decline in oil prices on Friday. At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. The price slide is due to a general worsening of sentiment.

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Report suggests low-speed electric vehicles could affect Chinese demand for gasoline and disrupt oil prices worldwide

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Low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) could reduce China’s demand for gasoline and, in turn, impact global oil prices, according to a new issue brief by an expert in the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “ Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: An Underappreciated Threat to Gasoline Demand in China and Global Oil Prices? ”

2019 265

Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. As Saudi Arabia announces plans to slash production and move their economy away from oil dependency, many industry insiders are predicting that the now over-saturated market will reach an equilibrium with higher commodity prices by 2018 and U.S. shale production will continue to grow along with global demand.

Opinion: Why oil prices must go up

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It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil. While analyzing the short-term trajectory of oil prices is certainly important, it obscures the fact that over the long-term, oil exploration companies may struggle to bring new sources of supply online. Market Background Oil Opinion

Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. But along with all of the excess crude flowing from the oil patch, there is also an abundance of market indicators that while important, tend to produce a lot of noise that makes any accurate estimate nearly impossible. First there is the oil price itself. As storage begins to run out, the glut could worsen, sending prices way down.

2015 199

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices. Those who study crude prices have correctly observed it was the 4 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in US LTO production that contributed greatly to the 2014 oil price collapse.

2016 150

US Shale Is Immune To An Oil Price Crash In 2017

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Since OPEC announced the production cut deal at the end of November, industry analysts have been warning that rising production from producers outside the deal—U.S. shale in particular—is effectively capping the oil price gains from that agreement. Four months after the OPEC/NOPEC deal took effect, oil prices dropped to the levels preceding the agreement, amid concerns over still stubbornly high inventories and rising U.S.

2017 163

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion. Market Background Oil

2015 183

The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs). Lower oil supply will push up prices if demand continues to grow.

2019 200

Opinion: This Is What Needs To Happen For Oil Prices To Stabilize

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On September 10 th , the EIA reported a production decline in the Lower 48—essentially shale production—of 208,000 BOPD (barrels of oil per day). That is a staggeringly enormous number, approximately 10 percent of the estimated global over-supply. Rather, Goldman Sachs was grabbing all the headlines with its $20 call on oil. Pundits will claim otherwise, suggesting that oil in the 50s or 60s will spur activity. Market Background Oil Opinion

2015 203

Opinion: Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia’s Oil Industry

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Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn. The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. However, the upside to Russia’s oil production is limited.

Russia 228

Alternative fuels to ‘power car industry growth’

Green Cars News

While the global economic climate may still be fairly dire, a new report suggests that for the UK auto industry growth will be driven by new technology and investment into alternative fuel powertrains over the coming few years. While rising oil prices might seem to pose a threat to auto makers, according to the latest [.]. Green credentials car industry electric hybrid KPMG power report study UK

IHS Markit: global commercial vehicle production to drop 22% in 2020 in wake of COVID-19

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IHS Markit is forecasting that global commercial vehicle production (GVW 4-8) volumes in 2020 compared to 2019 will be down 22% (more than 650,000 units) to 2.6 These forecasts are informed by the latest IHS Markit global economic forecast updates, which reflect a 3.0% decline in global real GDP in 2020. The China policy response to assist the commercial-vehicle industry has been broad, with a variety of direct and indirect supports announced, locally and nationally.

2020 175

Opinion: Global Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think

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Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the collapse of prices in July—owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China—have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets. That brings us back to the large spending cuts the oil majors are undertaking.

2015 184

IHS Markit: global oil production now expected to be cut by as much as 17 MMb/d in Q2 2020; the Great Shut-In

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The second quarter of 2020 will see the largest volume of liquids production cuts, including shut-in production, in the history of the oil industry, according to IHS Markit. IHS Markit now expects much as 17 MMb/d total liquids output (which includes nearly 14 MMb/d of crude oil production) to be cut or shut-in during the period between April and June 2020. The Great Shut-In, a rapid and brutal adjustment of global oil supply to a lower level of demand is underway.

2020 161

IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

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Energy efficiency has tremendous potential to boost economic growth and avoid greenhouse gas emissions, but the global rate of progress is slowing, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. Global primary energy demand rose by 2.3% Primary energy intensity—an indicator of how much energy is used by the global economy—improved by just 1.2% Gas demand growth was driven by its use in industry and buildings for heating.

2019 150

Eni report: global oil reserves and oil production up in 2018 due to US

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Eni has released the 18 th edition of the World Oil, Gas and Renewables Review , the annual statistics report on oil, natural gas and renewables sources. The first volume of the report, the World Oil Review, is devoted to oil reserves, supply, demand, trade and prices with a special focus on crude oil quality and on refining industry. In 2018, global oil reserves rose slightly (+0.4%), mainly due to growth in the US.

2019 161

Global Bioenergies reports first production of green isobutene at demo plant

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Global Bioenergies is now entering the final phase of demonstrating its technology for converting renewable carbon into hydrocarbons. The first trials on the demo plant in Leuna were successfully completed, within schedule, in the fall of 2016 and Global Bioenergies announced first production of green isobutene via fermentation. Global Bioenergies is partnering with Audi, earlier post.)

2016 210

Study details viable pathway to develop sustainable aviation biofuels industry in Pacific Northwest; hydroprocessing of natural oils seen as the most immediate opportunity

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The Pacific Northwest has the diverse feedstocks, fuel-delivery infrastructure and political will needed to create a viable biofuels industry capable of reducing greenhouse gases and meeting the future fuel demands of the aviation industry, according to a newly-released study by Sustainable Aviation Fuels Northwest (SAFN). While the development of alternative jet fuels is a global challenge, SAFN focuses on sustainable biomass grown in the Northwest. biofuels industry.

2011 199

IHS Automotive forecasts 88.6M unit global light vehicle market in 2015; 2.4% growth

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IHS Automotive forecasts global automotive sales for 2015 to reach 88.6 in 2014 as a result of industrial overcapacity and weakness in the real estate sector. The campaign is expected to have a long-lasting effect on premium parts/vehicle prices in China. Coupled with this, the momentum could lead to downward adjustment in premium pricing, which helps provide solid foundation for premium vehicle penetration to further increase in China in the next decade. Global.

2015 199

Worldwatch Institute report finds global energy intensity increased in 2010 for second year in a row

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Global energy intensity, 1981-2010. Global energy intensity—defined as total energy consumption divided by gross world product—increased 1.35% in 2010, the second year of increases in the context of a broader trend of decline over the last 30 years, according to a new Vital Signs Online article from the Worldwatch Institute. Between 1981 and 2010, global energy intensity decreased by about 20.5%, or 0.8% Click to enlarge.

2011 210

IEA: Global oil discoveries and new projects fell to historic lows in 2016 while US shale surged; “two-speed” market

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Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency, which warned that both trends could continue this year. Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 This sharp slowdown in activity in the conventional oil sector was the result of reduced investment spending driven by low oil prices.

2017 150

Navigant forecasts global light duty electrified vehicle sales to exceed 6.0M in 2024; PEVs to account for roughly half

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In a new report, Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts , Navigant research projects that under its base scenario, global sales of light duty electrified vehicles (i.e., Subsequently, the company used data on electricity and oil prices; government incentives; charging infrastructure; vehicle costs; and other factors to determine the business case of an electrified vehicle (HEV, PHEV, or BEV) purchase against its conventional competitor in each forecast year.

2015 150

IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The MTOMR is the last in a series of medium-term forecasts that the IEA devotes to each of the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy.

2012 216

Pike Research forecasts global biofuels market to double by 2012 to $185.3B

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Pike Research forecasts that the global market for biofuels will more than double over the coming decade, increasing from $82.7 growth in the industry over the next decade, Pike expects production volumes to fall short of an estimated 71.8 BGPY in 2011) would represent just 7% of the estimated global transportation fuels market in 2021. continue to pour into the industry. Ultimately, widespread commercialization will depend on whether these ventures can reach price.

2012 217

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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Global production of biofuels increased 17% in 2010 to reach an all-time high of 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up from 90 billion liters (24 billion gallons US) in 2009. of all global fuel for road transportation—an increase from 2% in 2009, according to the report. In 2010, the United States generated 49 billion liters (13 billion gallons US), or 57% of global output, and Brazil produced 28 billion liters (7 billion gallons US), or 33% of the total.

2011 219

Global investment in renewable power reached $270.2B in 2014, ~17% up from 2013; biofuel investment fell 8% to 10-year low

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Global investment in renewable power and fuels (excluding large hydro-electric projects) was $270.2 Additional highlights of the 9 th annual Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2015 report include: China saw by far the biggest renewable energy investments in 2014—a record $83.3 Another challenge was, at first sight, the impact of the 50%-plus collapse in the oil price in the second half of last year.

2015 217

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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Global emissions of CO 2 increased by 3% last year, according to the annual report “Trends in global CO 2 emissions”, released by the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). At 3%, the 2011 increase in global CO 2 emissions is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%. Emissions from OECD countries now account for only one third of global CO 2 emissions—the same share as that of China and India.

2012 204

Forecast: global spending in 2011 on advanced oil and gas exploration technologies to total $10.17 billion

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UK-based market analyst visiongain projects that global spending in 2011 on advanced oil & gas exploration technologies will total $10.17 As the need to find new oil and gas deposits increases, the exploration industry will be relentlessly driven toward the use of more advanced surveying methods, including seismic 2D, 3D and 4D imaging, Controlled Source Electromagnetics (CSEM) and Remote Sensing techniques.

2011 179

Navigant Research forecasts 58% growth in global biofuels consumption by 2022; biodiesel and drop-in fuels gain market share

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In a new report, “ Biofuels for Transportation Market s”, Navigant Research forecasts that global demand for biofuels in the road transportation sector will grow from representing almost 6% of the liquid fuels market in 2013 to roughly 8% by 2022. Navigant forecasts that global biofuels consumption in the road transportation sector will grow from more than 32.4 Navigant projects the global biodiesel market will grow from 6.9

2014 200

GlobalData: COVID-19 puts EV sales and CO2 fleet emission targets at risk

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GlobalData research shows that lower oil prices as a result of the COVID-19 crisis could reduce electric vehicle demand and impair EU efforts to significantly reduce average new vehicle CO 2 emissions in the European car market. GlobalData’s analysis suggests that low oil prices will lead to a longer waits for the reduced fuel costs offered by electric vehicles (EVs) to amortize their higher purchase prices.

2020 260

Pike Research forecasts global biofuels market value to double to $185B by 2021

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According to a new report from Pike Research, the increased production and consumption of biofuels will more than double the industry’s market value in the next decade. Pike forecasts that the global market for biofuels will increase from $82.7 between 2017 and 2021, as a combination of higher oil prices, emerging mandate. drive increased investment in the industry, the report finds. growth in the global biofuels industry. industry.

2011 196

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). The “450 Scenario” of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 , which sets out an energy pathway consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the increase in the average global temperature to 2 °C, requires CO 2 emissions to peak at 32.6

2012 199

More Job Losses Coming To US Shale

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With the recently concluded nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, oil prices have already started heading downward on sentiments that Iran’s crude oil supply would further contribute to the already rising global supply glut. The economic crisis in Greece, OPEC’s high production levels and China’s market turmoil have created more pressure on oil prices, making a price rebound look highly unlikely in the near future.

2015 199

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

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Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Further, improved supply prospects for natural gas are likely to lead to decoupling of oil and gas markets, according to the study. The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand.

2011 185

US Shale Is Now Cash Flow Neutral

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Oil prices are probably already high enough to spark a rebound in shale production. The IEA says that in the third quarter of 2016, the US shale industry became cash flow neutral for the first time ever. For years, the drilling boom was done with a lot of debt, and the revenus earned from steadily higher levels of output were not enough to cover the cost of drilling, even when oil prices traded above $100 per barrel in the go-go drilling days between 2011 and 2014.

2016 201

Era Of Cheap, Subsidized Gasoline To End In United Arab Emirates

Green Car Reports

Global oil prices have remained fairly low for most of this year, which should be good news for people in most of the industrialized world. But that's not the case in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. The continued slump in prices has prodded the seven-state federation to make a somewhat radical change in policy. oil Middle East energy policy United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia

Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share

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Global CO 2 emissions from fuel use and cement production by region. Very high oil prices up to the summer of 2008, together with a worldwide financial crisis have caused a halving of the annual increase in global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from consumption of oil, coal and gas, and from cement production, according to preliminary estimates by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), using recently published energy data from BP.

2008 163

IHS Markit: US oil production growth heading for a major slowdown, as capital discipline and weak prices play out

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US shale production—the chief source of rapid growth that made the United States the world’s largest oil producer—is slowing down fast, says a new report by IHS Markit. The new IHS Markit outlook for oil market fundamentals for 2019-2021 expects total US production growth to be 440,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 before essentially flattening out in 2021. The combination of closed capital markets and weak prices are pulling cash out of the system.

2019 163

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. per year, as the mature economies react to sustained high fuel prices.

2014 275

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections. However, both cases result in global CO 2 emissions well above the IEA 450 scenario—a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.

2011 185

GSI/UNEP conference report finds fossil-fuel subsidy reform complex and challenges sobering; ~1% of global GDP spent on fossil-fuel subsidies

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Although momentum behind reforming subsidies for fossil fuels (for both consumers and producers) worldwide has gained significant momentum during the past few years, and although the benefits of subsidy reform seem evident, countries’ experience of reform and the challenges involved are “sobering”, according to a recently published report from a conference convened on the subject last year by the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

2011 207