Opinion: Why oil prices must go up

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It may be difficult to look beyond the current pricing environment for oil, but the depletion of low-cost reserves and the increasing inability to find major new discoveries ensures a future of expensive oil. The industry did not log a single “giant” oil field.

Today’s Stunted Oil Prices Could Cause Oil Price Shock In 2020

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As oil prices remain unsteady and OPEC continues to make headlines every hour, the world is focused on oil’s immediate future. As Saudi Arabia announces plans to slash production and move their economy away from oil dependency, many industry insiders are predicting that the now over-saturated market will reach an equilibrium with higher commodity prices by 2018 and U.S. shale production will continue to grow along with global demand.

Opinion: Everyone Is Guessing When It Comes To Oil Prices

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Predicting and diagnosing the trajectory of oil prices has become something of a cottage industry in the past year. First there is the oil price itself. Since then, predictions for oil prices for 2015 have been all over the map— from Citigroup’s $20 per barrel, to T.

2015 101

Increase in US rig count will not cap oil prices

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The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. Too many analysts continue to believe drilling and service has the same problem with rising oil prices.

Opinion: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

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Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. US oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with production falling more than a half million barrels per day since hitting a peak at nearly 9.7 That is not good news for oil prices.

Opinion: Consumers winning with low oil prices, for now

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Lest we be too quick to forget whence we came, America is now 9-months into lower gasoline prices, which started their swoon the week of June 30, 2015 from a lofty national average just under $3.70, tumbling almost every subsequent week before bottoming and bouncing from $2.02 It is estimated that for every penny gas goes down, consumers collectively save $1 billion. decline curves eventually catch up with fewer rigs, oil supplies should start to fall. Market Background Oil

2015 75

$10-Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEC

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OPEC says that $10 trillion worth of investment will need to flow into oil and gas through 2040 in order to meet the world’s energy needs. The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 (WOO) in late December, which struck a much more pessimistic note on the state of oil markets than in the past. On the one hand, OPEC does not see oil prices returning to triple-digit territory within the next 25 years, a strikingly bearish conclusion.

2015 70

Navigant forecasts global annual natural gas vehicle sales to reach 3.9M in 2025, up 62.5% from 2015

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In its new Natural Gas Vehicles report, Navigant Research forecasts that global annual NGV sales—light-, medium- and heavy-duty—will grow 62.5% Various regional factors affect the markets for natural gas vehicles (NGVs), Navigant observes.

2015 78

Global Bioenergies reports first production of green isobutene at demo plant

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Global Bioenergies is now entering the final phase of demonstrating its technology for converting renewable carbon into hydrocarbons. Global Bioenergies is partnering with Audi, earlier post.)

2016 106

IHS Markit: global oil demand still growing in the short term despite increasing focus on EVs

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Short-term oil demand is still growing strong and will continue to do so through the end of 2020 despite the market’s increasing focus on electric vehicles and the forecasted future plateau in oil demand, according to new analysis from IHS Markit, a global business information provider.

2018 83

Opinion: Global Oil Supply More Fragile Than You Think

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Many oil companies had trimmed their budgets heading into 2015 to deal with lower oil prices. But the collapse of prices in July—owing to the Iran nuclear deal, an ongoing production surplus, and economic and financial concerns in Greece and China—have darkened the mood. Now a prevailing sense that oil prices may stay lower for longer has hit the markets. That brings us back to the large spending cuts the oil majors are undertaking.

Annual global oil & gas capital expenditure to pass $1-trillion mark in 2012

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Increased activity in the Exploration and Production (E&P) sector will be the primary driver in pushing oil and gas capital expenditure (capex) to $1.039 trillion for 2012, according to the latest report by business intelligence firm GlobalData. The new report— Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure Outlook, H1 2012 —forecasts that the total oil and gas capex will increase by 13.4% of the 2012 global total.

2012 74

Forecast: global spending in 2011 on advanced oil and gas exploration technologies to total $10.17 billion

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UK-based market analyst visiongain projects that global spending in 2011 on advanced oil & gas exploration technologies will total $10.17 As the need to find new oil and gas deposits increases, the exploration industry will be relentlessly driven toward the use of more advanced surveying methods, including seismic 2D, 3D and 4D imaging, Controlled Source Electromagnetics (CSEM) and Remote Sensing techniques.

2011 71

Navigant: almost 39,300 natural gas refueling stations worldwide by 2026

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The total number of natural gas refueling stations globally will reach almost 39,300 locations by 2026, according to a new report from Navigant Research. Since late 2014, the production of crude oil has outpaced demand, triggering a sustained collapse in world oil prices, which have remained mostly below $50 per barrel. As a result, these low prices have put pressure on the market for natural gas vehicles (NGVs) and the corresponding refueling infrastructure.

2016 60

FCA, IVECO and Snam sign MoU for development of natural gas as an environmentally friendly vehicle fuel

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Alfredo Altavilla (Chief Operating Officer of FCA EMEA Region), Pierre Lahutte (IVECO Brand President) and Marco Alverà (Chief Executive Officer of Snam), signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at fostering the development of natural gas as a fuel for road vehicles. Italy is the leading European market for natural gas consumption for vehicles, with more than 1 billion cubic meters consumed in 2015 and about 1 million vehicles currently in circulation. Europe Natural Gas

2016 71

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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The global energy map is changing significantly, according to the 2012 edition of the Internal Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook ( WEO-2012 ). The IEA said these changes will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades. The report also finds that by 2035 global energy savings could be equivalent to nearly 20% of global demand in 2010. Oil demand reaches 99.7

2012 78

BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

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Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, but its 33.1% Global energy consumption grew by 2.5% Oil demand grew by less than 1%—the slowest rate amongst fossil fuels—while gas grew by 2.2%, and coal was the only fossil fuel with above average annual consumption growth at 5.4% globally, and 8.4% Fossil fuels still dominated energy consumption with 87% market share, while renewables rose fastest but are still only 2% of the global total.

IEA: Global oil discoveries and new projects fell to historic lows in 2016 while US shale surged; “two-speed” market

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Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70 years, according to the International Energy Agency, which warned that both trends could continue this year.

2017 78

Navigant forecasts global medium- and heavy-duty alt powertrain sales to exceed 820K units in 2026

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According to a new forecast report from Navigant Research, global commercial alternative powertrain medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) sales will grow from about 347,000 vehicles in 2016 to more than 820,000 in 2026, representing a CAGR of about 9%. Whereas fuel cost used to be a major driver for fleet managers, the lowering of oil prices and the availability of low-cost natural gas has reduced this concern, Navigant notes.

2016 60

EIA: Price ratio of crude oil to natural gas continues to increase

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The ratio between the spot prices of crude oil and natural gas has been generally increasing since January 2009, but it has climbed rapidly in recent months, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude oil to natural gas price ratio.

2012 109

Sasol bails on $13-$15B US GTL project, divests from Canadian shale; no new greenfield GTL

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At the company’s Capital Markets Day 2017 in Johannesburg, South Africa, Sasol management said that the company will no longer pursue its proposed ) project in the US ( earlier post ) and furthermore will not invest in additional greenfields gas-to-liquids (GTL) projects. In January 2015 Sasol announced it was delaying a final investment decision on the proposed project near Lake Charles, Louisiana to conserve cash in response to lower oil prices.

2017 60

Global biofuels production up 17% in 2010 to hit all-time high of 105 billion liters

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Global production of biofuels increased 17% in 2010 to reach an all-time high of 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up from 90 billion liters (24 billion gallons US) in 2009. of all global fuel for road transportation—an increase from 2% in 2009, according to the report.

2011 114

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.

2011 96

IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The MTOMR is the last in a series of medium-term forecasts that the IEA devotes to each of the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy.

2012 84

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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Global emissions of CO 2 increased by 3% last year, according to the annual report “Trends in global CO 2 emissions”, released by the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). At 3%, the 2011 increase in global CO 2 emissions is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%. Emissions from OECD countries now account for only one third of global CO 2 emissions—the same share as that of China and India.

2012 81

Petrobras says it is expanding oil and gas production in the pre-salt in “economically viable” manner

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Responding to press articles saying that the collapse of the global oil price is threatening oil and gas production in the off-shore Brazil pre-salt layer, Petrobras countered that it is expanding its production capacity “in an economically viable manner.” On Tuesday, 6 January, the price for WTI crude closed at $47.93/bbl, while Brent crude closed at $51.10.

2015 71

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). The “450 Scenario” of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 , which sets out an energy pathway consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the increase in the average global temperature to 2 °C, requires CO 2 emissions to peak at 32.6

2012 78

GSI/UNEP conference report finds fossil-fuel subsidy reform complex and challenges sobering; ~1% of global GDP spent on fossil-fuel subsidies

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Although momentum behind reforming subsidies for fossil fuels (for both consumers and producers) worldwide has gained significant momentum during the past few years, and although the benefits of subsidy reform seem evident, countries’ experience of reform and the challenges involved are “sobering”, according to a recently published report from a conference convened on the subject last year by the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

2011 83

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. This larger resource leads to about double the shale gas production and more than 20% higher total lower-48 natural gas production in 2035, with lower natural gas prices, than was projected in the AEO2010 Reference case.

2010 93

Pike Research forecasts global biofuels market value to double to $185B by 2021

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Pike forecasts that the global market for biofuels will increase from $82.7 between 2017 and 2021, as a combination of higher oil prices, emerging mandate. Pike projects that the Americas will account for 71% of global biofuels production. After healthy growth over the past decade, the global biofuels industry is entering a new era marked by feedstock flexibility, product neutrality, and sustainability, the report notes. growth in the global biofuels industry.

2011 78

More Job Losses Coming To US Shale

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With the recently concluded nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, oil prices have already started heading downward on sentiments that Iran’s crude oil supply would further contribute to the already rising global supply glut. Sabine Oil and Gas Corp.

2015 101

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020, falling to below 2010 levels by 2035

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Global demand for oil may well peak before 2020, falling back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035, according to a multi-client research study conducted by Ricardo Strategic Consulting launched in June 2011 in association with Kevin J. Further, improved supply prospects for natural gas are likely to lead to decoupling of oil and gas markets, according to the study. The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand.

2011 74

Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share

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Global CO 2 emissions from fuel use and cement production by region. Global CO2 emissions increased from 15.3 Fossil oil consumption decreased by one per cent, due to high prices and more biofuels. percentage points to the global decrease.

2008 83

Market report concludes Arctic oil and gas exploration and production market to be worth about $12B this year

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In a newly released report, market analyst Visiongain has calculated the Arctic oil and gas exploration and production market to be worth $11.93 Although oil and gas have been produced in the Arctic region for years, many of the vast oil and gas fields that initiated interest in the Arctic are in decline. The high oil price is again driving investment in E&:P in this region as the focus gradually moves offshore from the prolific onshore areas.

2011 71

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. Despite rising fuel prices, use of liquids for transportation increases by an average of 1.1% World energy consumption by fuel type, 2010-2040.

2013 131

Huge Backlog Could Trigger New Wave Of Shale Oil

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The latest crash in oil prices once again raises this prospect. On the one hand, lower oil prices – despite the recent rebound, prices are still down sharply from a few months ago – can cause some E&Ps to want to hold off on drilling new wells. The lower oil price raises some questions about whether you go ahead with completing these wells,” Tom Petrie, head of oil and gas investment bank Petrie Partners, told S&P Global Platts.

2019 79

The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs). Lower oil supply will push up prices if demand continues to grow.

2019 80

US Shale Is Now Cash Flow Neutral

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Oil prices are probably already high enough to spark a rebound in shale production. Even when US oil production hit a peak at 9.7 By 2016, oil companies large and small had shed a lot of that extra fat, running leaner than at any point in the last few years.

2016 101

Toyota Plug In

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Japan and Europe by 2010 , under a widespread "green" strategy outlined today.The ecological gas-electric vehicles, which can be recharged from a home electrical outlet , will target leasing customers, Toyota Motor Corp. Event Summary Oil prices are at record highs.

2008 130

Opinion: The Shale Delusion: Why The Party’s Over For US Tight Oil

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The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by US producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”. OPEC and US crude oil production.

2015 106

Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can’t Agree

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shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks. But analyst projections about oil global supply and demand are increasingly diverging, because expectations of the combined effects of OPEC’s cuts, U.S.

2017 60

GM and Hawaii Gas Company to Collaborate on Hydrogen Infrastructure Pilot; Different Approach to Provisioning Fueling Stations

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General Motors and Hawaii’s The Gas Company (TGC), the state’s major gas energy provider, are collaborating on a hydrogen infrastructure project. Charles Freese, executive director of GM Global Fuel Cell Activities. Fuel prices are among the highest in the US.

Hawaii 102

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. per year, as the mature economies react to sustained high fuel prices.

2014 109