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Navigant Research: plug-in electric vehicles close to becoming leading alternative fuel platform, best positioned to lead future

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By 2030, annual PEV sales are estimated to be between 15% and 32% of the global light duty vehicle market, producing a global PEV population between 107 million and 190 million.

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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

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MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

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The MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) has released a report on the proceedings—and papers that informed those proceedings—of the 8 April 2010 symposium on The Electrification of the Transportation System: Issues and Opportunities. Currently, petroleum almost exclusively fuels the United States (US) transportation system.

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Deutsche Bank Forecast sees slower transportation electrification and greater gasoline demand near-term; increased confidence in the pace and breadth of long-term shift to efficient transportation systems

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” Their analysis is in the context of the “ surprising [oil] demand strength of 2010 “; 2010 saw absolute incremental demand at around 2.2mb/d of growth—the second highest in 30 years, despite oil prices in the $90/bbl region. In DB’s Fall 2009 note, they had forecast 12% growth. Click to enlarge.

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Sandia study finds meeting RFS2 requirements unlikely without stronger enforcement mechanism; the importance of drop-in biofuels

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Due to the numerous uncertainties, they used a parametric approach to examine a spectrum of possible futures, instead of highlighting a few scenarios. Their model tracks the evolution of the light-duty vehicle parc in the US, its fuel usage, and corresponding demands for energy stocks. —Westbrook et al. Barter, Dawn K.

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Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

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The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. DOE’s most significant role in transport research is here. —QTR.

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BNEF forecasts EVs to hit 54% of new car sales by 2040; decreasing importance of PHEVs

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Electric vehicles will make up the majority of new car sales worldwide by 2040, and account for 33% of all the light-duty vehicles on the road, according to a new forecast published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). —Colin McKerracher, lead advanced transport analyst at BNEF.

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