Norway BEVs Hit Record Volume in November — Tesla Model Y Leads

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Plugin electric vehicles took 89.3% share of the auto market in Norway in November, down from 91.2% year on year. Full electrics (BEVs), however, grew their share YoY, from 73.8% to 81.6%. Plugin hybrids continued to tail off, dropping to 7.7% from 17.4% YoY. Overall auto volumes were 19,513 units, up almost 28% YoY. November’s overall best seller was the Tesla Model Y.

November’s combined plugin market share of 89.3% comprised 81.6% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.7% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). The shares compare with 73.8% BEV, and 17.3% PHEV, a year ago.

Against the backdrop of a strong month in overall auto volumes, BEVs saw their highest monthly registration volumes on record, with 15,915 units. Their share was the 2nd highest on record, from March this year (86.1%).

As BEVs have steadily grown share, PHEVs have continued to be crowded out. They have only accumulated 8.1% share of the auto market this year, compared to 21.5% by this point in 2021.

Combustion-only powertrains saw their lowest share on record, together only taking 3.4% of the market (just 1.2% petrol), with a combined volume of 667 units.

Top Selling BEVs

Tesla was back to volume deliveries in November, with 3,309 units of the Model Y registered, almost 3x the amount of runner up, the Volkswagen ID.4. The BMW i4 came in 3rd, just ahead of sibling the BMW iX.

The BMW i4’s volume of 908 units was by far its biggest month so far, over 3× the previous peak (back in May this year). Likewise, the Volvo XC40 saw its biggest ever monthly volume, with 842 units.

In terms of the emergence of newer models: Toyota’s BZ4x, which first reappeared last month (after initial teething problems), saw a decent 342 units, though these may be catching up with a backlog of orders, rather than indicating the volume of sustained demand, time will tell.

Just outside the top 20, the VW ID.Buzz continued to grow, reaching 215 units in November, putting it in 22nd spot. Similarly, the Nissan Ariya hit a new high of 163 units, taking 25th spot.

Further back, the new MG4 continued to steadily ramp, registering 70 units in November (from 55 previously). The new Nio ET7 saw commercial volume for the the first time, with 32 units. The Nio ET7 is a large premium sedan (around €70,000 base) with almost 600 km of range, which recently won Germany’s coveted “Golden Steering Wheel” award.

The new Nio outsold the similar-segment new BMW i7 (24 units) in November. It will be interesting to see which of these two premium sedan models sees more volume over time, though the BMW is priced a lot higher (around €115,000 base in Norway).

Now let’s turn to the longer-term results:

Thanks to strong deliveries in both September and November, the Tesla Model Y took the top spot by a large margin, regaining the lead from the Volkswagen ID.4. The VW had previously held the lead (June-to-August period) whilst Tesla’s Shanghai production was irregular. The Skoda Enyaq remained in 3rd place.

Now that Tesla have decent levels of local European production of the Model Y (as well as Shanghai Production), it’s hard to see the ID.4 retaking the top spot in the near term. It may also require a mass-market priced vehicle (like the MG4 or similar) to displace the Tesla from this point on, but only if the production volumes are there — a big ask in the short term.

Another Tesla advantage is being able to put its products in the hand of customers without subjecting them the a 12 month wait that many other brands offer. For Norwegian customers, the Model Y can be delivered in under 2 months (January ’23 if ordered today).

Here are the main climbers since the June-to-August period:

• Volvo XC40 up from 32nd to 5th
• Volvo C40 up from 51st to 6th
• BMW i4 up from 19th to 7th
• VW ID.3 up from 14th to 9th
• Polestar 2 up from 21st to 10th
• Mercedes EQC up from 27th to 13th
• Toyota BZ4X up from 59th to 18th

Just outside the top 20, the Renault Megane — still ramping — already took 22nd, and may get close to the top 10 on its current trajectory. Likewise, the VW ID. Buzz, and Nissan Ariya, are both still ramping volume and climbing the ranks, and may appear in the top 20 soon.

Models losing ground:

• Hyundai Ioniq 5 fell from 6th to 12th
• Hyundai Kona fell from 7th to 21st
• VW ID.5 fell from 8th to 16th
• Ford Mustang Mach-E fell from 9th to 19th
• Tesla Model 3 fell from 11th to 17th
• BYD Tang fell from 12 to 32nd
• Kia EV6 fell from 13th to 25th

Some of these movements are due to changing supply allocation, rather than significant changes in demand.

For a recent update on Norway’s fleet transition to EV, take a look at last month’s report.

Outlook

With Tesla’s monthly delivery volumes in Europe now becoming more consistent, the BEV share in Norway is regularly around 80% per month, and growing. New affordable BEV models are appearing, and ramping up, to help fill in the remaining unmet niches in Norway’s auto market.

We can expect December to produce a record BEV share in the mid-80s percentage range, and overall plugin share in the low 90s.

What are your thought on the remaining pathway towards 100% EV in Norway? Please jump in to the comments below and join the discussion.