The price markup will probably be 15k USD because it is a factory retrofit. What is needed is a dedicated factory solution where the chassis is designed for CNG so that the price markup gets down to 6k USD for this size of vehicle.

VW’s new chassis developed for their Up! minicar is designed with a bay under the floor that can accommodate a variety of energy source from gasoline only, to bi-fuel gas and CNG and to battery only. It is going to be interesting to see the price markup for the Up! bi-fuel. I expect no more than 3k USD.

In the future I think most cars will be build on a chassis with a large bay under the floor that can accommodate various fuel sources and therefore also diverse powertrains. For instance, imagine a future Prius C with such a chassis. You could buy it as a gas only version for about 16k USD getting about 30 mpg. Alternatively, order it as a bi-fuel gas and CNG for 19k USD where it still gets 30 mpg but using natural gas that costs about 40% less than gasoline. Alternatively, order it as a hybrid gasoline that gets 50 mpg and that also costs 19k USD. Alternatively order it as a hybrid bi-fuel gas and CNG that gets 50 mpg but that now costs about 22k USD. Alternatively, order it as a plug-in gasoline with 12 miles battery power with 50 mpg when operated in gasoline mode. I expect it to cost 24k USD (19+5 for a 5kwh battery pack). Alternatively order it as a battery only car with a 24 kwh fast charge battery and 80 miles range and I would expect it to cost about 32 USD at today’s battery prices and about 28k USD by 2017. Alternatively, order it as a long range 160 miles battery only with 48kwh for about 40 k USD in 2017 (16 + 24 k USD for the 48 kwh battery).

I believe such a chassis with a large floor based bay is the DNA of the automobile of the future. VW has discovered it and are rolling it out on all of its coming platforms.

"The US car manufacturers, the Volt excepted, seem to regard their job as to delay and obstuct any move away from petrol by any means possible."

Even the Volt, paid for by tax bailout and subsidy, is being marketed by GM like the EV1 - priced too high and then stopping production, the coming five weeks initially.

Now GM can again say, "See how we really tried with those EVs. Guess we'll have to open 100 acre ICE auto plants in Russia and China. Thanks for those ~$100 billion(s?) in taxpayer bailouts and debt write-offs."

Is too big to fail too corrupt to catch?

Chrysler have the technology ready to go from Fiat, the biggest producer of CNG and bi-fuel vehicles in the world.
They do it at around a $3k premium, as Henrik said.

Chris m from autobloggreen said that's it's stupid to have 2 tanks because it take too much space.

I am not sure what the cost increase will be but one of my complaints would be that the CNG tank takes up bed space. I have a long bed extended cab Silverado and often need the full length of the bed to haul steel sections and steel weldments. I also have a full length camper that I use to go hunting and camping.

I'm sorry but I don't see anything new here. I remember driving a bi-fuel CNG/gasoline truck in the 80s.

It is not new, but it is from a major truck maker under warranty and ready to go. Businesses and individuals can make the decision according to their needs.

When new trucks from the factory are available at dealers, instead of conversions, more people may be willing to consider the option. Once they look at the savings in fuel costs, it could be a real easy decision, then we all benefit.

Not everyone is old enough to remember the 1970s oil embargoes, they did not last long but had quiet an effect on people'e outlooks. We might see a similar situation soon, I hope not but it could be.

Henrik,

Thank you for the information. I would like to see trucks running on CNG/LNG, but there is a static inertia holding the situation in place.

This is why I say take natural gas and make synthetic gasoline to mix with our present refined stock. Make the energy future more stable and buy time for further improvements.

Compact GTL and other companies have made it easy and affordable to begin the process without a lot of delay. We could sit around and argue ego points until the collapse or actually get something done.

When new trucks from the factory are available at dealers, instead of conversions, more people may be willing to consider the option.

I should point out that the company I worked for did order the bi-fuels from the factory: They came in both trucks for us guys and sedans for the white shirts. Fleet operators have always had the option to order from the factory.

@SJC
I know you favor the GTL/synthetic fuel solution. Below is six arguments of why I prefer to use natural gas directly despite it will take some time (up to 10 years) to build the fueling infrastructure and roll out dedicated OEM manufactured bi-fuel vehicles.

1) Using natural gas directly is much cheaper than using liquid fuels made from natural gas.
2) Converting natural gas to liquids is wasteful. Most of the energy is lost in the process emitting large amounts of CO2.
3) Converting natural gas to liquids is also capital intensive. You need to build multibillion USD refineries to do it. In order to scale it to several millions of barrels per day you need to invest hundreds of billions of USD.
4) Burning liquid fuels, such as, gasoline and diesel is far more (many times more) polluting in terms of sot, particle matter and SOX than burning natural gas.
5) Burning liquid fuels, such as, gasoline and diesel is about 25% more polluting than burning natural gas in terms of CO2 pollution (on top you also need to add the CO2 emitted when producing the synthetic fuel).
6) The NOX emissions are also less in natural gas engines but emissions of residual natural gas is admittedly higher when burning natural gas in a combustion engine rather than liquid fuels.

SJC
I don’t believe in converting old gasoline vehicles either. Much too expensive and impractical and it also introduces safety issues and broken warranties. Nor do I believe in the factory retrofits like GM’s Silverado that appears to occupy one third of the trunk space. I believe in designing vehicles from ground up to have natural gas tanks under the floor so that all trunk space is preserved and it can be done at low costs. Fiat is doing it in Europe right now. The US does not have a single dedicated natural gas vehicle for sale. The Honda Civic natural gas does not count as it is also just an expensive factory retrofit with limited utility and not a dedicated bi-fuel vehicle. The VW Golf 2014 I think will be the first dedicated bi-fuel vehicle in the US with full utility. I think it will be an instant hit among fleet owners and then it will start from there with more vehicles being offered and more natural gas stations going on-line.

As you rightly point out nothing has happened in the past 40 years in terms of going off oil in transportation. I think this is because oil has been dirt cheap for most of the time apart from the time of the 80’ties oil crisis and the past 5 years. This time oil is more likely to stay highly priced and we as a society are more concerned about air pollution than ever so I think this time natural gas and battery electric transportation will grow big. It could take 10 years with the help of politicians and it can take 20 years if the market is left to do it by itselves. This is what I believe right now.