Peak oil (liquid fuel) demand will become a reality as vehicles, airplanes, ships and machinery are equipped with more efficient drive motors and/or electrified.

Peak fuel demand has already happened in our area where most large V-8 have already been replaced with lighter, more efficient 4-cyl units, many hybrids and suburban e-trains. Over 90% of the home heating oil furnaces have been replaced with electric heating. Four of the five local refineries and more than 60% of the gas stations have already been closed.

If the current trend continues, we will reach the level suggested in the Ricardo's study many years sooner.

Harvey, try to keep a semblance of plausibility. "60% of the gas stations have already been closed?" Replaced by what fuel source? 98% of the auto fleet is still running on petrol last I looked.

While we enjoy playing catalyst in the "new energy paradigm" - discretion need also apply. The introduction of extremely low cost heat will more immediately affect utilities and grid establishments. The portent of residential CHP appliances removing an increasing number of customers from utility grids - spells trouble for utilities even before oil companies.

But not if utilities see the amazing OPPORTUNITY they're being handed. To manufacture, install and maintain LENR CHP appliances. The 21st century "water heater." Sears, Whirlpool, GE, Honda, GM, Panasonic, etc. can all license LENR technology to make multi-tiered heating, cooling and electric generating appliances. Utilities can partner with appliance makers to provide installation and service (CHP service contracts replace lost grid revenue.)

The predominant role of oil in the global energy mix is facing an ever greater challenge from a number of emerging trends.

True. But the greatest consumer of oil, light duty transport, is still a decade from converting even 50% to PHEV. So, Alberta can rest easy for a moment. As can the major oilcos who will need to become new energy companies as their commodity devalues. In the aggregate there is MORE opportunity than less. Afterall, as the global middle class expands - they'll all want, cars, CHP, TVs, iPhones and other material stuff that makes life amusing.

I can certainly see demand falling in the (currently) wealthy developed economies for the reasons given above.
However, there is huge demand in the developing countries, such as China, India, the rest of SE Asia, etc.
These nations, especially the poorer ones may not be able to afford the latest hybrids or turbo-supercharged engines and will use cheaper models that consume a lot of fuel.
In my opinion, the only thing that will reduce fuel consumption would be a massive worldwide recession.
(I hope I am not right!)

I see many flaws in their reasoning, sure the oil demand has already peaked in Europe and might soon in US but the demand will go up in emerging countries so that the global oil demand will not go down any time soon. Let's face it even with an economy in neutral the barrel of oil is at 95US$ and that certainly not goes to the direction that they describe. Sure natural gas might offset oil demand but so far little has been done to displace oil by natural gas. Only one model of car is available in US that work with CNG, so again how can it be a game changer? Before we really move to alternative solutions the price of oil need to go up a lot.

Harvey, your numbers are pure fantasy wish fulfillment - nothing wrong with that - it's a virtual world. But according to the US Census Bureau, the number of gas stations in 2002 was 117,000. In 2009, Commerce Dept. reports 118,756 gas stations. So, the number of gas stations has INCREASED by nearly 2,000 in the last ten years.

"Schools, hospitals, commercial buildings, factories etc all used oil for heating. Today, almost nobody is using oil for that purpose."

Happy you're interested in these topics Harvey but to demonstrate how woefully WRONG your information is - according to the Oilheat Research Alliance there are currently 10 Million oil heated homes in the USA. About 35,000 new oil heated homes are built annually.

Transportation and residential/business heating are the two major consumers of oil. While that will continue to decrease in the USA. EU and Canada - there is an upward trend in emerging nations.

Imagine replacing those 10M oil heaters with ultra clean (ZERO pollution) LENR CHP units. Let's say the manufacturer of these units makes a $100 profit on each. That's a $1 Billion opportunity selling to just 10% of single family residences.

Real economics are this: after capital cost of an E-Cat type CHP system, home owners will no longer have huge monthly energy bills. THAT money stays with those who have EARNED it. So, $50-500 dollars a month goes back into local economies or savings or for education, investments etc. Thus LIFTING quality of life for millions domestically, and billions around the world.

Reel$$...I forgot to suggest that would may have to widen your eyes and have a look to what is being done outside USA. Many mature economies are reducing liquid fuel consumption NOT increasing it. Oil furnaces for new houses is certainly no longer justified nor the most economical way to maintain the required comfort level. Recent, very high efficiency all-weather heat pumps can do a much better job at 1/3 the operational cost with associated pollution.

Don't hide from the fact that Canada has 1/10th the US population and follows doggedly in its footsteps. The Canadian winters are FAR COLDER than those in the USA. You all NEED LENR appliances to heat your homes & hot water, and provide up to 25kW electric power at a monthly service cost of about $10.00.

THINK how the average Canadian will benefit by elimination of monthly energy bills. INDEED, government will have to do what its citizens have done - cut the FAT. Elimination of utility revenues can and will be de-escalated so as not to crash markets or government services. But just as citizens have reduced consumption of energy, so too will government be required to reduce consumption of tax dollars. It is only fair and it is being implemented right now.

Reel$$...oil (like tobacco) is not always a NET revenue item for governments. The multiple tax exemptions (many Oil-cos do not not pay taxes), huge direct and indirect subsidies, huge trade deficits, increased health care cost, direct and indirect cost of 40,000+ road fatalities/year, very costly oil wars, etc etc can more than offset the current low fuel taxes.

A recent study, done by a large accounting firm, concluded that government coffers would benefit by the closing down of oil industries and the switch to electrified vehicles. Low cost electricity is currently taxed at 64% (50% dividend + 14% sale taxes) rate in our area and any increase in e-energy consumption would bring huge revenues in for all levels or government. Electricity, being a local product, is much easier to tax than imported oil.

nordic,

You intuition is correct. But what you are prophecy is already happening in the real world. In the US Oil demand peaked and started declining in 2001,gathering steam as time passed. Europe joined in the OIL demand decline by mid-decade. Certainly the Great Recession increased the decline some more, but recovery from the depths of 2008 and 2009 is not a true increase and has not reached the levels of consumption seen in 2007.

In short Oil demand is already declining at a large rate, in all the industrialized world, as new technology is applied. Only the rather temporary growth blip in China and India masks the coming collapse in Oil prices. Massive new production is occurring in North and South America and under the seas, while the Iraqi oil fields are only now beginning to return to prewar levels.

Do you know that America could continue to drive just as many cars as it does today without a drop of Oil simply using synthetic manufactured Ethanol, if every car were a VOLT. no that they will be but they old and would were the World to "run out" as the Peakist idiots assume. Oh the Peakists maybe are right in the long run. They may even have the century correct but it the wrong Millenia. The year 3050 might be the year we "run out" of Oil, if we will even care by then.

I urge all to compare the article posted by the EIA and this one, and contrast their conclusions. Both can't be right, and neither are.