Pike Research forecasts hybrid electric locomotive sales could reach nearly 500 units from 2011 to 2020; to utilize 514 MWh of battery capacity by 2020
10 August 2011
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| Hybrid electric locomotive sales by region, baseline scenario, World Markets: 2010-2020. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge. |
According to a recent report from Pike Research, hybrid locomotive sales will reach nearly 500 units during the period from 2011 to 2020, representing an increasing portion of the total market.
During that period, hybrid locomotive sales will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.4% under a baseline forecast scenario, with annual unit sales surpassing 100 locomotives by 2020. Pike Research’s aggressive forecast scenario anticipates that the market could achieve a CAGR of 25.4% during the same period, with annual unit sales exceeding 170.
The market will receive a boost from new diesel locomotive emissions regulations scheduled to go into effect in the European Union in 2014 and in North America in 2015, which will require diesel locomotives to receive substantial changes or exhaust treatments. In addition, railroad infrastructure is growing rapidly in India and China, and emissions concerns will drive hybrid demand in those markets as well.
—senior analyst Dave Hurst
However, adds Hurst, growth in hybrid locomotives faces several key challenges. In Europe, track electrification will eliminate the need for either diesel or battery storage in many areas. In North America, a high-profile hybrid locomotive product faced a serious setback in the mid-2000s (the Green Goat from Railpower) that still haunts the industry today.
Hurst also notes that the market for hybrid locomotives faces stiff competition from newer fuel-efficient locomotives such as diesel gensets, and in many world regions, the locomotive engine does not have to meet strict emissions rules.
The defining characteristic of hybrid locomotives is their use of very large capacity batteries, the development of which Pike Research anticipates could have a positive effect on batteries for other industry sectors. Senior analyst Dave Hurst states that new sales of hybrid locomotives will require approximately 514 megawatt hours (MWh) of battery capacity between 2011 and 2020.
Almost all locomotives used today are powered by electricity, either generated onboard through a diesel engine or provided through a connection to the electric grid (third rails or overhead lines). Hybrid locomotives are an emerging alternative to these approaches that utilized stored energy from batteries.
Most of this capacity will be in lead acid and advanced lead acid batteries, with a portion of the market utilizing sodium metal halide and lithium-ion batteries.
Hybrid locomotives are a demanding application for advanced batteries, and innovation in that sector could provide a boost to some of the battery chemistries being tested for other uses, mostly stationary applications.
—Dave Hurst
While the low-cost batteries used in hybrid locomotives will make their profitability attractive, Hurst points out that their adoption will be driven in large part by their ability to reduce emissions by as much as 80%, and the potential for fuel savings between 15% and 40% versus conventional diesel engines. Other benefits include reduced noise levels and lower maintenance costs.
Tracks electrification, used very widely in UE, China, Russia etc., is a better solution. USA and Canada will soon come to the same conclusion
Posted by: HarveyD | 10 August 2011 at 08:39 AM
Thomas the tank engine, and his friend Harold the Hybrid engine.
Posted by: mahonj | 10 August 2011 at 09:10 AM
Where is GE with its hybrid locomotive using the Zebra Battery?
Posted by: Mannstein | 10 August 2011 at 04:01 PM
The only synergism I see in this is the locomotive needs weight.
BUT.
1. I think regular power trains provide this.
2. Hybrids are poor choices for cruising, even worse when climbs and descents are moderate "RR grades".
2A. When hills are long and/or far apart, a really BIG battery must be required.
There is a lot I don't know about locomotive design requirements, but until I see free enterprise investing their own money, I will cling to my belief.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 10 August 2011 at 08:21 PM
For the uninitiated, diesel-electric locomotives ARE the original hybrids.
The facile opinion is that rail electrification via catenary connection is not something preferred. Most rail firms constantly compute the cost and losses associated with electrifying more mileage. In tiny Europe electrifying the rails makes sense. In the US where the distances are much greater, only the relatively small portion of the US rail-bed that merits electrification has been done. Yet the mileage electrified rival all of Europe though.
Further hybridization with large on board batteries afford the ability to use smaller gen-sets but still supply the peak power required for grades. But by far the driving force for new locomotives is the Tier IV toxic emission regulations that are now coming into force.
Uncleansed Locomotives emit tremendous amounts of toxic pollution. Single locomotives produce the equivalent to thousands or tens of thousands of modern autos. Having largely cleansed the auto, the regulators are turning their attention to other pollution sources, and the locomotive is being transformed as a result.
Posted by: ExDemo | 11 August 2011 at 09:41 AM
"use smaller gen-sets but still supply the peak power required for grades."
OK, but how much battery MW-HRS will this take?
Since RR grades are gentle, they are long.
So peak power is required:
not for 5 seconds after the light turns green.
not for 2 minutes as the train leaves the terminal
it's for 20 minutes or 1 hour as the train heads for higher country.
The problem statement seems more like storing solar power during the day for night time use.
Maybe only useful for flatlander routes.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 26 August 2011 at 05:56 AM