Forecast: Global Natural Gas Vehicle Fleet to Reach 17 Million by 2015
11 December 2009
A new report from Pike Research forecasts that the global natural gas vehicle (NGV) sector is poised for a new period of growth. The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that the number of NGVs on the road worldwide will grow to 17 million vehicles by 2015, up from 9.7 million in 2008. Globally, Pike Research forecasts that the NGV market will grow at a CAGR of 5.5% to reach just more than 3 million vehicles (including conversions) by 2015.
Light-duty NGVs are not readily available in North America and parts of Asia, and are, in many cases, completely unavailable to private owners, the report notes. Conversely, in Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and India—the top five markets for NGVs—there are a variety of light-duty NGVs available. The reasons for NGV market growth vary for each country, according. In g to the report, which identifies four key demand drivers for NGV adoption:
Economics. The fuel has to be cheaper than gasoline/diesel to recover the additional cost of the vehicle within a reasonable amount of time. This is the most important factor, the Pike report says.
Environmental benefits. NGVs have substantially lower GHG, CO2, and NOx than gasoline or diesel.
Energy security. In most regions, the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel is for the purpose of reducing the usage of imported crude oil or imported refined gasoline.
Availability. The fuel, vehicles, and repair technicians have to be readily available or the market will not grow.
Governments, fleet managers, and consumers are increasingly recognizing the environmental benefits of lower emissions from natural gas vehicles. However, lack of refueling station infrastructure has inhibited NGV demand in many countries. In regions where NGVs have strong market performance, adoption is largely due to a combination of inexpensive natural gas, a large number of existing refueling stations, and government subsidies of vehicles, fuel, and infrastructure.
—Dave Hurst, Pike Research
While Hurst projects that China’s overall vehicle market is projected to remain strong with a CAGR of 6.9% between 2008 and 2015 (compared to 2.7% for the United States), he anticipates India will be the fastest-growing NGV market with a CAGR of 18.4% between 2008 and 2015. This rapid expansion will largely be due to the availability of refueling stations and the growth of government emissions rules in large cities in India.
Despite growth of the market as a whole, the US NGV market is expected to remain dominated by fleet sales to government and commercial customers (89% of sales in 2015). Pike expects the CAGR for US NGV sales to be 17.7% between 2008 and 2015, which translates into 31,347 vehicles (including conversions) sold in 2015.
"Light-duty NGVs are not readily available in North America.."
This is part of the problem. With ANG in a PHEV, you could get a 200 mile range out of 3 cubic feet at only 400 psi. You could refill in your garage with a less expensive compressor and lower cost tanks. Maybe if gasoline hits 5 dollars per gallon, one dollar GGE fuel would look good.
Posted by: SJC | 11 December 2009 at 02:40 PM
Combination liquid fuels with natural gas systems should be used in the US. Full operation on natural gas is not possible with diesel but present automotive diesels can be adapted to use up to 90 percent natural gas. A 40 mile natural gas range is adequate for most US cars, and home refueling should be implemented as a matter of principle where possible. Multiple small pressure tanks can be used instead of one big one, and these could be mounted under the vehicle and in spare spaces. Simple cheap systems can be provided that augment the use of gasoline rather than replace it. Such systems can be far more easily implemented for adding to existing vehicles. All diesel trucks and locomotives could also implement such systems. ..HG..
Posted by: Henry Gibson | 11 December 2009 at 03:44 PM
It is a problem.
Althouh there are several aftermarket suppliers, there are few: one announced O.E. computer integrated lPG to port fuel injection; one After market lpg vapor sequential (computer integrated); few (include one Australian) Computer integrated LPG vapor diesel. By that I mean fully integrated and mapped. The others are Throttle Body vapor systems.
N.G. - S.F.All. (for light vehicles) As far as I know.
No manufactures do a Direct Injection version.
Hope people can suggest (the) others.
So the efficiency potential is far from state of the art. Might be a job for one of Orbital Engine's fuel systems.
Australian LPG (Understand NG is industry preferred sateside?) costs are maintained ~ 1/2 of petrol.
Beats me how people can talk about Hydrogen as if it's the next 'you beaut' 'clean' thing if these other real fuels can't get more traction.
Generous $2,000 conversions available for ~ a decade.
Some announcements of 'gradual' parity on fuel prices which can't help - depending how severe the policy.
Posted by: arnold | 11 December 2009 at 04:31 PM
The EPA and others make it tough to market conversion systems. It costs a lot to get one approved, it applies only to certain years and models, has to be tested on all vehicles it is installed on and installed only by a certified mechanic.
EPA talks about clean air and then makes it difficult to convert cars to natural gas or dual fuel. It seems like a contradiction and it is. If we want to reduce imported oil, we will need to streamline this process now.
Posted by: SJC | 11 December 2009 at 09:45 PM
This is where ANG might come in. You can store 4 therms at only 500 psi in 2 cubic feet. The tanks and compressors are less expensive, so more people can refuel at home. I could see independent gasoline stations offering this if the price was right.
We need to get the EPA and CARB streamlined in favor of NG and ANG as soon as possible. This takes car completely OFF of oil and would do a lot to help reduce imported oil right away. If the driver could get 150 miles on one tank of ANG at two dollars per gasoline gallon equivalent, it might just become popular.
Posted by: SJC | 13 December 2009 at 02:05 PM
.
EPA talks about clean air and then makes it difficult to convert cars to natural gas or dual fuel. It seems like a contradiction and it is. If we want to reduce imported oil, we will need to streamline this process now.
What?!?!?! Big Government is actually making things WORSE??? No!....
And people (a small percentage now) actually WANT a government bureaucracy in charge of their health care. "Sorry, you don't meet our life-value standards to get that medicine. Good luck."
.
Posted by: The Goracle | 14 December 2009 at 10:27 AM
The EPA wants to protect the environment, so they want to make sure the NG conversions are clean. A poorly done conversion can pollute more than it should.
I would not make a sweeping statement that this is an example of poor functioning in everything, thus we should reject everything. That is faulty reasoning, if you could call it that.
Posted by: SJC | 15 December 2009 at 11:19 AM