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EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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AEO2015 presents updated projections for US energy markets through 2040 based on six cases (Reference, Low and High Economic Growth, Low and High Oil Price, and High Oil and Gas Resource) that reflect updated scenarios for future crude oil prices. trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in the Low Oil Price case to 13.1

2020 150
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EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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new appliance standards and CAFE) and changes in the way energy is used in the US economy. Further, the fossil fuel share of primary energy consumption falls from 82% in 2011 to 78% in 2040 as consumption of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely because of the incorporation of new fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles.

Fuel 225
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MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

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The five different fuel groups were those derived: from conventional petroleum; from unconventional petroleum; synthetically from natural gas, coal, or combinations of coal and biomass via the FT process; renewable oils; and alcohols. Alternative jet fuels will have a limited impact on fuel price volatility. million bpd.

MIT 250
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Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. With four times the population and a vast demand for economic development to raise standards of living, developing countries will see energy use rise further.

2008 150
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EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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It also incorporated California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard—which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that State by 10% from 2012 through 2020, and incorporated changes in environmental rules at the State level. Beyond 2020, CAFE standards for both passenger cars and light-duty trucks are held constant.

Gas 199
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EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards and CAFE standards increase new LDV fuel economy through model year 2025 and beyond, with more fuel-efficient new vehicles gradually replacing older vehicles on the road and raising the fuel efficiency of the LDV stock by an average of 2.0% Industrial shipments are expected to grow at 3.0%

Oil 290
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Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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power plants and refineries) and in turn to the transportation, residential, industrial, and commercial end-use sectors. The database includes joint Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG emission standards for LDVs. million tonnes in 2050, due to existing control requirements and the shift away from coal-fired generation.

Emissions 150