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The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs). Lower oil supply will push up prices if demand continues to grow.

2019 204

IEA: global energy efficiency progress drops to slowest rate since start of decade

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Energy efficiency has tremendous potential to boost economic growth and avoid greenhouse gas emissions, but the global rate of progress is slowing, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency. Global primary energy demand rose by 2.3% Primary energy intensity—an indicator of how much energy is used by the global economy—improved by just 1.2% Gas demand growth was driven by its use in industry and buildings for heating.

2019 150
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BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections. However, both cases result in global CO 2 emissions well above the IEA 450 scenario—a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.

2011 190

GSI/UNEP conference report finds fossil-fuel subsidy reform complex and challenges sobering; ~1% of global GDP spent on fossil-fuel subsidies

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Although momentum behind reforming subsidies for fossil fuels (for both consumers and producers) worldwide has gained significant momentum during the past few years, and although the benefits of subsidy reform seem evident, countries’ experience of reform and the challenges involved are “sobering”, according to a recently published report from a conference convened on the subject last year by the Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

2011 210

IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The MTOMR is the last in a series of medium-term forecasts that the IEA devotes to each of the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy.

2012 220

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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Global emissions of CO 2 increased by 3% last year, according to the annual report “Trends in global CO 2 emissions”, released by the EC Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). At 3%, the 2011 increase in global CO 2 emissions is above the past decade’s average annual increase of 2.7%. Emissions from OECD countries now account for only one third of global CO 2 emissions—the same share as that of China and India.

2012 207

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). The “450 Scenario” of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 , which sets out an energy pathway consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the increase in the average global temperature to 2 °C, requires CO 2 emissions to peak at 32.6

2012 203

Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share

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Global CO 2 emissions from fuel use and cement production by region. Very high oil prices up to the summer of 2008, together with a worldwide financial crisis have caused a halving of the annual increase in global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from consumption of oil, coal and gas, and from cement production, according to preliminary estimates by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), using recently published energy data from BP.

2008 163

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. per year, as the mature economies react to sustained high fuel prices.

2014 277

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

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A joint MIT/RAND study of the near-term commercial feasibility of alternative jet fuels has concluded that three types of alternative jet fuels may be available in commercial quantities over the next decade: Jet A derived from Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan Very Heavy Oils (VHO); Fischer-Tropsch (FT) jet fuel produced from coal, a combination of coal and biomass, or natural gas; and hydrotreated renewable jet fuel (HRJ) produced by hydroprocessing renewable oils.

2009 217

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. Some key findings from the report: Net energy imports end before 2030 in the AEO2015 Reference case and before 2020 in the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases.

2015 197

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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However, the report advises, long-term solutions to global challenges remain scarce; as one example, the report sees global CO 2 emissions rising by 20% to 37.2 WEO-2013 presents a central scenario (“New Policies”) in which global energy demand rises by one-third in the period to 2035, although energy demand in OECD countries barely rises and by 2035 is less than half that of non-OECD countries. Low-carbon energy sources meet around 40% of the growth in global energy demand.

2013 233

Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. Receives New Order for DME Feed Pumps From Shanghai Diesel Engine Company

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Shanghai Diesel Engine Company is owned by Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation (SAIC), one of the top three automotive corporations in China. The company’s ultima goal is series production of DME fuel systems for the global automotive market by 2011. Dimethyl ether is a diesel fuel replacement that can be produced from abundant resources including natural gas, landfill methane, coal and biomass. Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc.

2010 204

IHS Markit: 2020 low-sulfur requirements for marine bunker fuels causing scramble for refiners and shippers

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The IMO fuel sulfur content regulation will have a significant global impact on both the refining and the shipping industries. Owing to uncertainty around the implementation date and the ultimate level of compliance, neither the global refining nor shipping industries have as yet made the necessary investments to comply fully with the IMO rules. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) is the predominant marine fuel. The two industries are vastly unprepared.

2017 150

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. In the first half of the year, producers strained to meet global demand, but when the recession took hold later in the year the market was swamped by excess supply. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December.

2008 150

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

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The report, “ Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 ”, concludes that biomass, hydropower, geothermal and onshore wind are all competitive with or cheaper than coal, oil and gas-fired power stations, even without financial support and despite falling oil prices. However, the report notes, renewable energy price improvements are not universal, and costs range widely according to resources and the availability of financing.

2015 303

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

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Advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power (CSP), and solar photovoltaic power (PV) will see accelerating adoption and growth and are on track to change the global energy mix far earlier than is often assumed, according to a new report from The Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The fortunes of alternative energy have historically waxed and waned with the price levels of oil, gas, and other energy sources, rising when prices are high only to fall once they retreat.

2010 246

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) Reference case released yesterday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) more than doubles the technically recoverable US shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources. This larger resource leads to about double the shale gas production and more than 20% higher total lower-48 natural gas production in 2035, with lower natural gas prices, than was projected in the AEO2010 Reference case.

2010 183

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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The current global economic downturn will dampen world energy demand in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slows. World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, world oil prices rise to $110 per barrel in 2015 (in real 2007 dollars) and $130 per barrel in 2030.

2006 150

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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AEO2013 offers a number of other key findings, including: Crude oil production , especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and. Other AEO2013 Reference case highlights include: The Brent spot crude oil price declines from $111 per barrel (in 2011 dollars) in 2011 to $96 per barrel in 2015.

2012 200

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

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Energy executives expect continued volatility in the price-per-barrel of oil for the remainder of the year, with 64% predicting crude prices to exceed $121 per barrel. The executives also foresee shale oil and gas having a transformative effect on helping to meet the world’s energy needs, according to the results of the 9 th Annual Energy Survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute. Biomass Natural Gas Oil Oil Shale Solar Wind

2011 200

IEA World Energy Outlook view on the transport sector to 2035; passenger car fleet doubling to almost 1.7B units, driving oil demand up to 99 mb/d; reconfirming the end of cheap oil

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Change in primary oil demand by sector and region in the central New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035. The International Energy Agency (IEA) last week launched the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO), the current edition of its annual flagship publication assessing the threats and opportunities facing the global energy system out to 2035. Despite the priority in many countries to increase energy efficiency, global energy intensity worsened for the second straight year.

2011 215

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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Examples of emerging oil sands related technologies and trade-offs. The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., Debate about the future of oil sands development is so contentious that even the name of the resource is disputed: proponents typically use oil sands while opponents use tar sands. Why then the focus on oil sands?

2010 200

MITEI releases report on Electrification of the Transportation System

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The transportation sector thus represents a significant fraction of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions both globally and in the US—light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are responsible for 17.5% Electrification will also reduce oil dependence, providing foreign policy benefits and the potential to reduce real oil prices and oil price volatility.

2011 218

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Their results showed great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. First, demand for passenger travel may be saturating in industrialized countries.

2013 188

Inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review report concludes DOE is underinvested in transport; greatest efforts to go to electrification

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The DOE-QTR defines six key strategies: increase vehicle efficiency; electrification of the light duty fleet; deploy alternative fuels; increase building and industrial efficiency; modernize the electrical grid; and deploy clean electricity. In the transportation sector, DOE will focus on technologies that significantly reduce oil consumption and diversify fuel sources for on-road transportation. Vehicle efficiency has the greatest short- to mid-term impact on oil consumption.

2011 195

VW Chief Executive Says Company Will Introduce EVs Based on the Up! New Small Family in 2013; Cautions Against Electro-Hype

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Within a decade, he added, Volkswagen wants to offer significant numbers of pure electric cars at affordable prices and with the range expected by customers. Winterkorn made the remarks during a presentation at the 17 th Handelsblatt-Jahrestagung in Munich on 3 July, during which he outlined VW’s approach to future mobility in the current context of the economic crisis, pessimism about the industry and technology potential. about 7% of global CO 2 emissions.

2009 150

Demand for oil ‘passed its peak’

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World oil demand is poised for recovery driven by emerging markets but demand from developed countries is unlikely return report finds. Demand for oil in developed countries—currently 54 percent of all oil demand—has passed its peak, the latest research suggests. Industry analysts reckon oil demand in developed countries likely reached its all-time peak in 2005. Oil demand outside the transportation sector has already been relatively flat since 1980.

2009 34

Cleantech Blog: Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

Early Days in the Obama Administration An Address I'd Like to Hear Global Warming Solutions Included in Transportatio. Thinking Globally, Acting Locally San Francisco City Carbon Collobarative 18th and 1. Renewables That Even Coal-Based Utilities Can Love. V2G helps solve the major problem that demand for electricity is high during the day when everything from industrial plants to air conditioning is running full blast and then excess electricity is wasted at night.

2009 28

Buffett's Chinese electric car company

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

3) TED 2009 (+2) Anti-Nuclear Effectively Means Pro-Fossil Fuel (+2) Consumption dwarfs population as main global warming threat (+2) If youve already signed up for TEC, you dont need to register again. Within a few years, BYD’s batteries were cheaper and just as reliable as those made by industry giants ony and Sanyo. Not many entrepreneurs evolve into effective leaders of global companies with 100,000 or more employees.

BYD 28