BNEF: Oil price plunge to have only moderate impact on low-carbon electricity development, but likely to slow EV growth

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The collapse in world oil prices in the second half of 2014 will have only a moderate impact on the fast-developing low-carbon transition in the world electricity system, according to research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance. However, the slump in the Brent crude price per barrel from $112.36 For example, if lower oil prices last, they are likely to slow the growth of the electric vehicle market, to some extent.

2014 90

BP Statistical Review finds global oil share down for 12th year in a row, coal share up to highest level since 1969; renewables at 2%

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Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, but its 33.1% Coal’s market share of 30.3% Oil demand grew by less than 1%—the slowest rate amongst fossil fuels—while gas grew by 2.2%, and coal was the only fossil fuel with above average annual consumption growth at 5.4% These shocks pushed energy prices higher in much of the world, with oil prices reaching a record annual average of more than $100 per barrel (bbl) for the first time.

2012 88

Updated NETL study provides more detailed economic and environmental assessment of coal-to-liquids and CTL with modest biomass

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The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has released a follow-on study to its 2009 evaluation of the economic and environmental performance of Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) and CTL with modest amounts of biomass mixed in (15% by weight) for the production of zero-sulfure diesel fuel. Both bituminous and sub-bituminous coals were evaluated as these coal types represent 90% of the US reserve base (53% and 37%, respectively). This equates to diesel prices in the range of $2.70

Coal 78

Surprise Natural Gas Drawdown Signals Higher Prices Ahead

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The US electric power sector burned through a record amount of natural gas in recent weeks, a sign of the shifting power generation mix and also a signal that natural gas supplies could get tighter than many analysts had previously expected. Natural Gas Power Generation

2016 78

Syngas Engages Rentech and GE for Clinton Coal and Biomass to Liquids Project in Australia

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Australia’s Syngas Limited has engaged Rentech to provide Fischer-Tropsch fuels production preliminary engineering services for Syngas’ proposed commercial scale coal and biomass to liquids (CBTL) fuels facility in Southern Australia, known as the Clinton Project. The Clinton Project is a large-scale coal-to-liquid (CTL) project with non-food carbon neutral biomass providing supplementary feed (CBTL) as part of the Company’s carbon management plan. Gas Conditioning.

2009 76

EIA: world energy consumption to grow 56% 2010-2040, CO2 up 46%; use of liquid fuels in transportation up 38%

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Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane increase. Despite rising fuel prices, use of liquids for transportation increases by an average of 1.1% World energy consumption by fuel type, 2010-2040.

2013 134

Study finds that dry-feed gasification for coal-to-liquids is more efficient, lower-emitting and cheaper than slurry-feed; CCS cost-effective for reduction of CO2

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Comparison of coal consumption and CO 2 emissions for co-production and separate production of liquids and power. Conventional CTL plant gasifies coal to produce a syngas which is then converted in a Fischer-Tropsch reactor to products. Tags: Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) Emissions

2010 104

Report finds Coal-to-Liquids and Oil Shale pose significant financial and environmental risks to investors

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Ceres recently released a new report concluding that coal-to-liquid (CTL) and oil shale technologies face significant environmental and financial obstacles—from water constraints, to technological uncertainties to regulatory and market risks—that pose substantial financial risks for investors involved in such projects. More than 25 companies are involved in oil shale development. Oil shale production requires 1.5

2010 74

BP Energy Outlook 2030 sees emerging economies leading energy growth to 2030; global CO2 emissions from energy well above IEA 450 scenario

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However, both cases result in global CO 2 emissions well above the IEA 450 scenario—a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990.

2011 96

EIA Energy Outlook 2011 more than doubles estimates of US shale gas resources; higher production at lower prices

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Shale gas offsets declines in other US supply to meet. This larger resource leads to about double the shale gas production and more than 20% higher total lower-48 natural gas production in 2035, with lower natural gas prices, than was projected in the AEO2010 Reference case.

2010 93

GSI/UNEP conference report finds fossil-fuel subsidy reform complex and challenges sobering; ~1% of global GDP spent on fossil-fuel subsidies

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For example, at peak oil price in 2008, Indonesia was spending 40% of its budget on transport fuel—more than health, education and infrastructure development combined. When Sir Nicolas Stern said that governments would need to spend 1 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at 450 parts per million, people balked at the amount. Coal Natural Gas Oil Policy

2011 83

RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead

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If the US military increases its use of alternative jet and naval fuels that can be produced from coal or various renewable resources, including seed oils, waste oils and algae, there will be no direct benefit to the nation’s armed forces, according to a new RAND Corporation study. Opportunities to Produce Alternative Fuels with Lower Greenhouse Gas Emissions. If this is achieved, lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions can be near zero.

2011 84

MIT/RAND Study Concludes Three Types of Alternative Jet Fuel May Be Available in Commercial Quantities Over the Next Decade

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The five different fuel groups were those derived: from conventional petroleum; from unconventional petroleum; synthetically from natural gas, coal, or combinations of coal and biomass via the FT process; renewable oils; and alcohols.

2009 112

GM and Hawaii Gas Company to Collaborate on Hydrogen Infrastructure Pilot; Different Approach to Provisioning Fueling Stations

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General Motors and Hawaii’s The Gas Company (TGC), the state’s major gas energy provider, are collaborating on a hydrogen infrastructure project. Fuel prices are among the highest in the US. It has the ability to make excess hydrogen from the process and add to the gas stream.

Hawaii 102

EIA projects world liquid fuels use to rise 38% by 2040, driven by growth in Asia and Middle East; transportation 92% of demand

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Liquid fuels production (OPEC crude and lease condensate, non-OPEC crude and lease condensate, and other) and consumption (by OECD and non-OECD regions) under three price cases in 2040. Crude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy crude oil, field condensate, and bitumen (i.e., oil sands, either diluted or upgraded). oil shale), and refinery gain. per year, as the mature economies react to sustained high fuel prices.

2014 110

RAND reports suggest US DoD use less petroleum fuel to deal with high prices, not count on alternatives

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According to three new reports on “Promoting International Energy Security” issued by the RAND Corporation, because the energy purchases made by the US Department of Defense are not large enough to influence world oil prices—despite DoD requiring considerable amounts of fuel to function—cutting fuel use is the only effective choice to reduce what the Pentagon spends on petroleum fuels. Peak oil. Could oil production peak before 2030?

2012 78

The $32-Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry

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Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs). Lower oil supply will push up prices if demand continues to grow.

2019 80

IIASA: removing fossil fuel subsidies will not reduce CO2 emissions as much as hoped

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However, the study found that the growth of CO 2 emissions by 2030 would only be 1-5% lower than if subsidies had been maintained, regardless of whether oil prices are low or high. First, these subsidies generally apply only to oil, gas, and electricity.

2018 90

IEA WEO-2012 finds major shift in global energy balance but not onto a more sustainable path; identifies potential for transformative shift in global energy efficiency

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The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO ’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. Links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve.

2012 78

EIA AEO2015 projects elimination of net US energy imports in 2020-2030 timeframe; transportation energy consumption drops

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The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that US energy imports and exports will come into balance—a first since the 1950s—because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand. Some key findings from the report: Net energy imports end before 2030 in the AEO2015 Reference case and before 2020 in the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases.

2015 77

EIA projects world energy use to increase 53% by 2035; oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels

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World oil prices remain high in the IEO2011 Reference case, but oil consumption continues to grow; both conventional and unconventional liquid supplies are used to meet rising demand. Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels.

EIA: China’s use of methanol in liquid fuels has grown rapidly since 2000; >500K bpd in 2016

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EIA research indicated that part of the reason for the underestimation of transportation sector consumption of liquid fuels stemmed from the use of methanol and its derivatives that were increasingly added into China’s gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) streams.

2000 78

KPMG survey finds majority of energy execs see oil over $121/barrel this year; shale expected to have transformative impact, investment in alternatives increasing

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Energy executives expect continued volatility in the price-per-barrel of oil for the remainder of the year, with 64% predicting crude prices to exceed $121 per barrel. The executives also foresee shale oil and gas having a transformative effect on helping to meet the world’s energy needs, according to the results of the 9 th Annual Energy Survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute. Biomass Natural Gas Oil Oil Shale Solar Wind

2011 78

Purdue analysis finds H2Bioil biofuel could be cost-competitive when crude is between $99–$116/barrel

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The Purdue University-developed fast-hydropyrolysis-hydrodeoxygenation process for creating biofuels—H 2 Bioil ( earlier post )—could be cost-competitive when crude oil prices range from $99 to $116 per barrel, depending upon the source of hydrogen, the cost of biomass and the presence or absence of a federal carbon tax, according to a new study by the Purdue team.

2012 81

Comprehensive modeling study finds electric drive vehicle deployment has little observed effect on US system-wide emissions

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EDVs offer three key benefits over competing vehicle technologies: (1) reduced consumption of petroleum-based fuels, (2) lower refueling infrastructure costs compared to alternatives such as H 2 and compressed natural gas, and (3) a shift in energy production from vehicles to the electricity grid, where emissions from large, centralized facilities are cheaper and easier to control. Fourth, CO 2 prices as high as 100 $/t do not provide sufficient incentive for vehicle electrification.

2014 81

IEA: Global CO2 emissions up by 1.0 Gt (3.2%) in 2011 to record high

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Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO 2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). China made the largest contribution to the global increase, with its emissions rising by 720 million tonnes (Mt), or 9.3%, primarily due to higher coal consumption. Global CO 2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011, according to preliminary estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

2012 79

IEA World Energy Outlook 2013 sees CO2 emissions rising by 20% to 2035; oil use on upward trend

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China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The Middle East becomes the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets.

2013 119

IEA: global map of oil refining and trade to be redrawn over next 5 years

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Profound shifts in the regional distribution of oil demand and supply growth will redefine the refining industry and transform global oil trade over the next five years, according to the annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The MTOMR is the last in a series of medium-term forecasts that the IEA devotes to each of the four main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal and renewable energy.

2012 86

Study projects emission impacts of inexpensive, efficient EVs: 36% further reduction in LDV GHG by 2050, or 9% economy-wide

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Compared to the reference case, in which gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 (BAU), OPT results in 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions.

2017 78

Global CO2 emissions up 3% in 2011; per capita CO2 emissions in China reach EU levels

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savings stimulated by high oil prices led to a decrease of 3% in CO 2 emissions in the European Union and of 2% in both the United States and Japan. tonnes per capita, despite a decline due to the recession in 2008-2009, high oil prices and an increased share of natural gas. Global fossil oil consumption increased by about 2.9% Natural gas consumption increased globally by 2.2% Coal consumption in China increased by 9.7%

2012 81

EIA 2035 reference case projects drop in US imports of petroleum due to modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic oil production, and biofuels

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EIA’s AEO2012 projects a continued decline in US imports of liquid fuels due to increased production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency. Over the next 10 years, continued development of tight oil (e.g., Forecasts Fuels Oil Policy

2012 96

Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession

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World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December. Coal has led the growth in fossil fuel production. In 2000, coal provided 28% of the world’s fossil fuel energy production, compared with 45% for oil.

2008 60

Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. Receives New Order for DME Feed Pumps From Shanghai Diesel Engine Company

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Dimethyl ether is a diesel fuel replacement that can be produced from abundant resources including natural gas, landfill methane, coal and biomass. At current oil prices, DME can be produced and distributed at less than 1/2 the cost of conventional fuel. Alternative Fuel Technologies, Inc. has built and delivered 12 dimethyl ether (DME) feed pumps to Shanghai Diesel Engine Company. These pumps will be used on DME fueled buses that will operate in Shanghai.

2010 80

IHS Markit: 2020 low-sulfur requirements for marine bunker fuels causing scramble for refiners and shippers

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Heavy fuel oil (HFO) is the predominant marine fuel. Refiners will experience significant price impacts as they shift production to deliver more lower-sulfur fuels to the market and, at the same time, find a market for the higher-sulfur fuels they produce.

2017 78

IRENA report finds renewable power costs at parity or below fossil fuels in many parts of world

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The report, “ Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 ”, concludes that biomass, hydropower, geothermal and onshore wind are all competitive with or cheaper than coal, oil and gas-fired power stations, even without financial support and despite falling oil prices.

2015 157

EIA: light duty vehicle energy consumption to drop 25% by 2040; increased oil production, vehicle efficiency reduce US oil and liquid imports

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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards and CAFE standards increase new LDV fuel economy through model year 2025 and beyond, with more fuel-efficient new vehicles gradually replacing older vehicles on the road and raising the fuel efficiency of the LDV stock by an average of 2.0%

2013 125

EIA Energy Outlook 2013 reference case sees drop in fossil fuel consumption as use of petroleum-based liquid fuels falls; projects 20% higher sales of hybrids and PHEVs than AEO2012

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AEO2013 offers a number of other key findings, including: Crude oil production , especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 Biofuels grow at a slower rate due to lower crude oil prices and.

2012 102

BCG report finds advanced biofuels, concentrated solar power, and solar photovoltaic tracking to make significant market impact sooner than commonly assumed

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The fortunes of alternative energy have historically waxed and waned with the price levels of oil, gas, and other energy sources, rising when prices are high only to fall once they retreat. Cleaner coal through carbon capture and sequestration.

2010 127

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

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The IEO2009 reference case does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. World oil prices have fallen sharply from their July 2008 high mark. As the world’s economies recover, higher world oil prices are assumed to return and to persist through 2030.

2006 78

Researchers Suggest That Although CCS and Other Technologies Could Reduce Oil Sands GHG Emissions to Near Zero, That Strategy May Not Make Sense

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Examples of emerging oil sands related technologies and trade-offs. The paper is an examination of how various choices about the scale of the life cycle analysis applied to oil sands (i.e., Why then the focus on oil sands?

2010 102

Annual Increase in Global CO2 Emissions Halved in 2008; Decrease in Fossil Oil Consumption, Increase in Renewables Share

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In addition to high oil prices and the financial crisis, the increased use of new renewable energy sources, such as biofuels for road transport and wind energy for electricity generation, had a noticeable and mitigating impact on CO 2 emissions.

2008 85

Buffett's Chinese electric car company

Tony Karrer Delicious EVdriven

BYD’s conventional gas-powered cars are selling well these days in China, and his electric plug-in electric model looks like it will come to market with a longer range and a lower sticker price than the new Toyota Prius much-hyped Chevy Volt.

Stanford, UC Santa Cruz study explores ramifications of demand-driven peak to conventional oil

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In contrast to arguments that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity, a team from Stanford University and UC Santa Cruz has examined the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution.

2013 96