Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession
17 October 2009
World production of fossil fuels—oil, coal, and natural gas—increased 2.9% in 2008 to reach 27.4 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day, according to a Worldwatch Institute analysis. In the first half of the year, producers strained to meet global demand, but when the recession took hold later in the year the market was swamped by excess supply.
Energy prices reflected this shift: oil peaked at $144 per barrel in July, then fell to $34 per barrel in December. Continuing a decade-long trend, most of the growth was in the Asia-Pacific region, where production grew 6.3%.
Although the global economic crisis has caused a temporary slump in demand, the long-term trend is clear: fossil fuel consumption in developing countries has surpassed that in industrialized countries. With four times the population and a vast demand for economic development to raise standards of living, developing countries will see energy use rise further.
Coal has led the growth in fossil fuel production. In 2000, coal provided 28% of the world’s fossil fuel energy production, compared with 45% for oil. By 2008, coal production represented a third of fossil energy production. The growth in China’s coal consumption since 2000 dwarfs that of all other countries combined. India, second in growth, added less than an eighth as much coal consumption as China during that period.
Despite marginal improvements in utilization efficiency, coal continues to be the most polluting fossil fuel.
Oil production reached 10.7 Mtoe per day in 2008, representing 39% of fossil energy production and slightly above the level in 2006, the next-highest production year. The ratio of proved oil reserves to annual production has held steady at roughly 40:1 for more than 20 years, but the remaining reserves are increasingly concentrated in more politically and technically challenging terrain.
The less politically risky deposits present formidable technical challenges. The deep ocean, oil shales, and oil sands are all potentially major sources of future oil production, but these are often expensive to access and their development may significantly increase the environmental costs of fossil fuel use. For example, Worldwatch notes, well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands in Alberta, Canada, are estimated to be 5-15% higher than emissions from conventional oil reservoirs. Nonetheless, high oil prices pushed production from the Canadian oil sands to 1.2 million barrels per day (Mbpd) in 2008, up from 1.0 Mbpd in 2005.
Natural gas production has maintained a 27-28% share of fossil energy production since 2000. Total gas production grew 3.8% in 2008 to reach 7.6 Mtoe per day.
Countries that are seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have increased their share of natural gas in electricity production, due primarily to the high energy-to-carbon ratio of gas relative to coal.
"..27.4 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per day.."
That is a huge number and we wonder why there is a rise in CO2 in the atmosphere. Whether you believe in global warming and climate change or not, there is no disputing that fossil fuels are in finite supply, one day they will run out. Let's use the renewable energy that is available continuously and not the energy that was stored over millions of years. It will take fossil fuels to make the renewable energy resources and we do not want to be stranded.
Posted by: SJC | 17 October 2009 at 07:27 AM
If the current trend continues and vehicle's electrification accellerates, oil may go from first to second place within 5 years with coal in first place.
In 2008:
Oil = 10.7 Mtoe (39%)
Coal = 9.1 Mtoe (33%)
NG = 7.6 Mtoe (28%)
Coal being the most polluting form of fossil fuel, the world is not making a very wise choice by using more of it to generate energy. The only way to stop that from happening would be with 200+ new large Nuclear plants or a combined equivalent of Nuke-Wind-Sun-Wave-Thermal energy plants. Pressure groups would have a field day.
Posted by: HarveyD | 17 October 2009 at 07:37 AM
Harvey
Oil going from 1st to 2nd place because of increased trend in electrification ? dream of it.
First of all there is no trend in electrification, only rumors or marketing attempt from big car automaker to see how the public react nothing more NOTHING. 5 years from now the share of electric car will be way less than 1%. Please look at the numbers, sales of cars in china this year are up 84% Tata Nano can't keep pace with the demand they are going to enlarge the factory, and these are not electric cars.
Don't get me wrong I badly want electric car to becomes the main stream soon, but I know taht it will not happen fast unfortunately so in the meantime I try to ride my bike as much as I can, and finaly I am happy having fun with my Recumbent Low racer flying beetwen the traffic, as you can see here
http://www.youtube.com/user/dou40006#p/a/u/0/-Jb-ele-qsE
Posted by: Treehugger | 17 October 2009 at 09:37 AM
"Fossil Fuel Production Up in 2008 Despite Recession"
And rising unrestrained planning would like to see emissions doublings. Then there's the Indo chinese situations.
Seems anywhere using less is exodus.
Harvey,
Hopefully not the artillery or 'literal' field day. Dangerous behaviour is only for the desperate.
Ultimately, everyone(entity) has a threshold limit.
You may be referring to alternative suppliers picking up the benefits, that's another field day, 'pickings'.
Noisy celebration and street dancing could be another definition "psychic wages".
Pressure groups need to voice concerns and inform.
Noisy ratbags are a fact of life and can harm the cause.
Counsel of restraint, civility and all those 'ideal behaviours is good practice.
If people dont show their colours,vote with their feet etc they wont be counted. Then we'll be trampled in the 'rush to wreck whats left. There is more than enough coal and others to bring that about in our lifetime.
Posted by: arnold | 17 October 2009 at 05:47 PM
Mass produced (partial) vehicle electrification started in 1997/98 with the Prius I. There are now over 2 000 000 partially electrified vehicles being used daily and many more millions will follow in the next ten to twenty years.
By 2020-2030 five to ten million HEVs and many more ICE vehicles will be progressively replaced with 10 times and then 100 times as many PHEVs and BEVs. Next year (2010) will be the first 1 000 000 + new electrified vehicles year. The following year may very see 2 000 000 + new electrified vehicles.
Future electrified vehicles may not all be HEVs, mild hybrid SUVs, Volts, Prius, Escapes and Delivery trucks. Many new formats will emerge other than current 4-wheel conventionnal vehicles.
During the next two decades we will see major transition in transportation vehicles. The sheer number of electrified units will surprise many.
Posted by: HarveyD | 17 October 2009 at 08:26 PM
I don't know why so many fear the ascendancy of coal and the reduction in Oil demand. The cleanest fossil power power plants are IGCC 'coal' plants that burn "cleaned gas" and have a secondary steam cycle to augment the Brayton cycle Natural Gas generation. Many NG deposits contain deleterious gasses which should be removed but often are not. These combined cycle plants possess the highest thermal efficiency of any power system. Any Engineer will tell you Efficiency is it own Reward. Fewer waste products make for fewer possible deleterious side effects.
If environmentalists had a half a brain, which I sometimes doubt, they would be encouraging the developing countries to build clean coal plants rather than making futile demands that the un-industrialized countries do without, that they simply ignore.
I won't even get into the discussion that modern 21st Century Science is now proving. GHG has a much tinier effect on climate than supposed back in the days of qualitative not quantitative climate Science. The deleterious effects disappear; and the benign "greening" effects of encouraging plant growth now appear to be a a clear benefit.
Oil will soon be in massive surplus and not just a 2-3% temporary swing condition. Electrification of Ground Transport is coming with a rush. There will be a flood in the next decade and a half of such vehicles. If Oil prices can decline by 2/3 with a mere swing of a few percent, what will happen to the Oil cartels when Oil is in surplus by 30-60%? The Oil "PRICE" Crisis, and that is what it always was, has removed the price of Oil from any relation to the cost of production for 35 years. That condition, and OPEC power along with it, is ending. I can't say there is much sympathy for the Oil Sheiks and Oil Commissars.
Posted by: Stan Peterson | 18 October 2009 at 03:25 AM
Satn:
You may well be correct about future crude oil consumption and I hope you are. Vehicles electrifiction has just started and will pick up speed quickly.
Clean coal power plants is more words than facts. Burning coal creates all kind of pollution. Some can be captured (at a cost) but it has to be disposed somewhere (at more cost). The added cost to get so called clean coal burning power plants are so high that nobody wants to do it. Also, nobody wants coal pollution disposal in their backward, no more than Nuclear waste disposals.
Cleaner power sources, (wind & sun & waves & hydro & geothermal & nuclear etc) also have objectors but no where near the pollution level.
Until such times as we have found how to get rid of coal burning related pollution effectively, we should leave it in the ground for future use.
Posted by: HarveyD | 18 October 2009 at 09:31 AM
@ Stan Peterson:
"If environmentalists had a half a brain, which I sometimes doubt, they would be encouraging the developing countries to build clean coal plants rather than making futile demands that the un-industrialized countries do without, that they simply ignore."
You took the words right out of my mouth. Bravo!
Posted by: Mannstein | 18 October 2009 at 03:50 PM
Mannstein:
Demosntrated good working brains are generally not the lot of naysayers and ultra conservatives.
Environmentalists and progressive people may be the majority within a few years, at least we should hope so.
Posted by: HarveyD | 19 October 2009 at 08:35 AM