EIA expects that domestic refinery production, including gasoline blendstock output, will be about 20,000 b/d lower this summer than last summer. However, ethanol blending into gasoline this summer is projected to increase by almost 20,000 b/d from last summer’s level to 960,000 b/d—10.1% of total gasoline consumption.

Projected total gasoline net imports (including blending components) are expected to be up 50,000 b/d from last summer’s level, and the rate of gasoline stock withdrawals is projected to be about 20,000 b/d lower than last summer.

EIA also projects that consumption of distillate fuel—diesel fuel and heating oil—will average 3.9 million b/d this summer. This level is 120,000 b/d (3.2%) higher than last summer’s consumption and closer to levels from summer 2015.

This growth in diesel consumption is mainly driven by a combination of higher economic growth, industrial output, and international trade activity, all of which contribute to higher trucking activity. High oil and coal production also could contribute to diesel consumption growth, EIA notes. Increases in oil drilling activity leads to higher consumption of distillate fuel, which is used to operate and transport drilling rigs. Higher coal production leads to increased rail shipments, which consumes diesel fuel.

For the 2017 April-through-September summer driving season, EIA forecasts US regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.46/gallon (gal), compared with $2.23/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices.

For all of 2017, the forecast average price for regular gasoline is $2.39/gal, which, if realized, would result in the average US household spending about $200 more on motor fuel in 2017 compared with 2016.

Despite this expected increase in expenditures, average household transportation expenses are forecast to be about $300 lower this year compared with average annual expenditures from 2012-16.

Electricity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects the cooling degree days this summer to be 10.5% lower than last summer and 1.2% below the previous 10-year summer average.

As a result of forecast cooler temperatures this summer, EIA expects the average US residential customer will use about 5% less electricity this summer compared with last year. Lower forecast temperatures throughout the country contribute to a forecast of reduced electricity use in all regions of the United States, ranging from 1% lower electricity use in the West South Central states to 8% lower use in the Middle Atlantic states.

EIA expects the US residential electricity price this summer to be 2.4% higher than last summer, primarily as a result of higher generation fuel costs. Prices are expected to be higher this summer in all regions of the country, except for the New England states where summer residential prices are expected to be almost 1% lower than last summer. The reduction in expected electricity use offsets the expected increase in retail prices in most regions.