Electrofuels..insteresting term, but when you gasify biomass or reform methane, that does not apply. Reforming methane and using extra waste CO2 can make fuel at much lower prices than $5 per gallon in the U.S.

EP - I saw a recommendation some time back that biomass be sequestered by dumping it in abandoned mines.

most of it depends on the electricity price and catalyst price.
Many promising types of Pt-free catalysts are emerging, which will presumably make electrolysers and fuelcells much cheaper.

Real price for renewable electricity is often almost nothing in Germany and Italy because of abundance of solar and wind power.

With prices of wind and solar continuously decreasing, it will be ever more obvious that these renewables are competitive even if a significant part of the time there is "under/overproduction". (Just as my car, which I consider an acceptable investment, even though it stands idle for >90% of the time). Simply install more solar/wind than you need most of the time, so that even on cloudy days without wind, there is still enough. Any spare electricity on "normal or windy days" can be turned into electrofuels and batteries.
Electrolysers can probably also function as a fuel cell in case the wind doesn't blow at night.
Advanced nuclear might also deliver cheap power, but this remains to be seen.

Imagine the cost of fuel doubling (not hard, since year 2000). And your GDP and living standards double. It would not be too hard to imagine $208 per barrel fuel looking affordable, particularly if certain modalities become wiser investments of capital than what we have now: (CLCVRC)

Cleaner fuel that takes care of waste recycling and waste production;

locally produced fuel needing no national infrastructure or protracted approvals;

competitive fuel to assuage public fears over fair and disclosed costs;

versatile fuel that can power a car or a home with equal ease and practicality;

reliable fuel that will not obsolesce in relation to a consumer need or a product marketed to satisfy it; and

charitable fuel that will incline sharing of fuel and appurtenant resources to alleviate poverty, with nominal disregard of profitability or personal aggrandizement.

It would take some economic growth to achieve all of this, and Washington is off to a whopping bad start.

"..making hydrogen from natural gas makes fuels cost competitive at just over $90 per barrel of oil equivalent, according to Lux."

Harvey,

The 800 million engine powered vehicles are not going to be replaced by EVs any time soon. In fact the world will soon have 1 billion liquid hydrocarbon powered vehicles.

That mean so you need LOTS of fuel, depending only on oil to make those fuels is risky considering OPEC and oil getting harder and more expensive to find.

I wish everyone drove EVs, but wishing and hoping will not make it so. Realities are what they are, you accept them and provide for them, or you have fewer options with more monopoly power for oil companies and oil producing countries.

@ai vin,

Better still, "electro-fuels" will not cost $200+ per barrel. Synthetic Hydrocarbon liquid fuels will cost well below $100/barrel in today's USD, even when 1/2 to 2/3 of its energy will come from solar and wind electricity and the remaining from waste biomass.

Or even better still, the electrolytic H2 made from solar and wind electricity is estimated by NREL to cost no more between $2-3 USD/kg (energy content equivalent to 1 gallon of gasoline) when solar and wind electricity will cost around $0.04-06 USD per kWh. Use that H2 in a FCV capable of 2-3x the MPGe of an equivalent ICEV and electrolytic H2 will have an equivalent cost of $25-50 per barrel!!!
($100 per barrel of crude is for the oil's raw cost only, the final products such as gasoline and diesel fuels must be transported to refineries and refined at additional costs of money and energy expenditure...to result in $3.5/gallon of gasoline or $4/gal of diesel, the energy cost per kWh will be $0.10/kWh vs $0.059/kWh for crude oil, or 70% higher cost from crude oil to a final product at the pump...while electrolytic H2 produced at the H2 retail station results in a final product right at the station without requiring neither further refining nor any transportation costs.)

Electro-fuels are already costing less than petroleum even today.

@msevior,

The 5% interest cost is only if an H2 station owner has no money of his/her own and has to borrow money. Perhaps he/she can get a better loan w/ lower interest. An owner w/ a lot of cash to fork out will come out ahead, since he/she will then be able to make a profit out of the investment when marking up the electricity to 7 cents/kWh, while others who have to borrow money won't become as competitive and have to sell the electricity to above 7 cents/kWh in order to make a profit.

The cost of building 800 million FC vehicles and the cost of the H2 distribution infrastructure will gradually come out of the consumer's pocket when their current cars are due for replacemen, or from private pockets when current gasoline stations are due for rebuilt or replacements.

Remember that those w/ a lot of cash if stashed it somewhere will lose value due to inflation, or if put in banks won't get enough of a return to even cover inflation. When invest in energy infrastructures, there will be a higher potential for gains and a more secure investment, since energy will always be in demand, while fossil fuel energy investment will be under threat due to global warming to force future legislations against GHG emission.

@Harvey,
Please don't forget the urgency regarding cessation of GHG emission. We don't have another 54 years. Consider leaving petroleum and coal under the ground as the best forms of carbon sequestration. The push for synthetic hydrocarbon fuels must be just as forceful as the push toward PEV's as well as FCV's, as well as increasing efficiency of ICEV's. Not everyone can tolerate PEV's or FCV's.

That's true, Harvey, oil will continued to be used in large quantity well into the future. However, if the oil will be synthesized from the combination of waste biomass and CO2-free-H2 from RE and nuclear energy, then this will not cause more CO2 emission and will be sustainable.

What will happen to GHG's and the climate will be entirely up to us today. My goal is to show the world how we can continue our high standard of living and consume a lot of energy, AND create a lot more new jobs WITHOUT releasing any further net CO2 into the atmosphere, completely sustainable. WE now have all the technologies needed TODAY.

The 5% interest cost is only if an H2 station owner has no money of his/her own and has to borrow money.

<sigh>  Roger, please look up "opportunity cost".

@E-P,
Please look up Bernie Madorff, Emron, Savings and Loan Scandal...etc

The cash money that you invest in your own business is solid...the more you'll get back in profits, the more return from the investment you'll get. You pay and get to play when you have your own business. When you invest your money elsewhere, you pay but you won't get to play!

An H2 station which caters to the affluent early adopters of FCV's can sell other stuffs and services beside H2 that will bring back even more return than just from the sale of H2.

To max out profits, remove the middle men. When one borrows money, one must service the interest payment to the middle men!

@Harvey,

No doubt, PEV's number will grow substantially. However, many people do not have convenient access to the plug.
Also, you cannot replace the V-twin of a Harley with an electric motor and expect people to buy it, nor can you replace the V-8 of a Corvette or a V-10 of a Viper and expect commercial success! Many people will just stick to ICEV no matter how you'll try to persuade them.
Also, liquid hydrocarbon fuels are very energy dense and can be stored in low-cost container, while battery electricity requires much heavier, bulkier, and much more expensive storage media.
Fuels can be refill in minutes, while battery electricity takes 10-20x longer even with fast charging.

Furthermore, the continuation of ICEV's using synthetic fuels will be more labor intensive and will preserve a lot of jobs, while the switch to PEV's with more reliable and less-maintaince vehicles will take away a lot of jobs.