The growth of PEV market share will be aided in part by the number and variety of PEV offerings coming to the market over the next several years. It will also be due to the continued drive to reduce carbon emissions and improve vehicle fuel economy in the major developed vehicle markets.

—“Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”

Although conventional light-duty hybrids are facing declining sales in North America and have failed to grow significantly in China, growing interest in Europe and consistent support in Japan will grow the market at a healthy CAGR of around 4.7% through 2024, according to Navigant.

For the report, Navigant evaluated announced automaker electrification strategies; concept vehicles; and regional mandates and regulations that incentivize vehicle electrification to assess what HEV and PEV availability will look like in each country throughout the forecast period on a vehicle-by-vehicle basis. Subsequently, the company used data on electricity and oil prices; government incentives; charging infrastructure; vehicle costs; and other factors to determine the business case of an electrified vehicle (HEV, PHEV, or BEV) purchase against its conventional competitor in each forecast year.

Navigant observes that the market for electrified vehicles has changed significantly over the past five years, but expects that changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.

In addition to positive factors driving PEV growth (government support through regulations and incentives, automaker product offerings, participation of the power sector), weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, Navigant said. These include the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014, as well as the phasing out of some local government purchase incentives.