AAB Study Projects Global EV New Vehicle Sales of Up to 400,000 Units by 2020, PHEV Sales of 500,000 Units by 2020
29 April 2010
A new study, “The Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Opportunity Report” authored by Dr. Menahem Anderman of the consulting firm Advanced Automotive Battery (AAB) projects that global EV market share will grow from negligible levels in 2009 to 0.13% of the 2015 new-vehicle market, and up to 0.50% of the 2020 new-vehicle market, which is anticipated at 80 million units annually—i.e., about 400,000 EV units by 2020.
Under the Report baseline estimate, the global plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) market will grow from essentially zero in 2009 to 500,000 units in 2020, and the associated Li-Ion automotive battery business—which includes EV, PHEV and HEV batteries—from $150 million in 2009 to $8.4 billion in 2020.
Most established automakers will cautiously field a few thousand vehicles annually starting in 2011-2013—much lower numbers than suggested by heavy media coverage of the technology, the report suggests—and plan to increase production pending prove-out of the technology.
The report notes that the market will be initially bolstered by heavy subsidies to automakers, battery makers, and consumers, but that sustained growth will depend on yet-to-be-proven battery technology as well as on supporting government policies.
AAB’s in-depth report is based on on-site interviews with senior battery technologists and business development executives at 20 major automakers and 15 of their current and prospective battery suppliers on three continents.
In addition to reviewing the history and lessons learned of electric-vehicle and battery development, the report contains detailed information about the Li-Ion battery: its economics, design, manufacturing, performance, and durability.
The report notes the critical importance of battery reliability and discusses the technological status and manufacturing position of battery producers. It also points to half a dozen Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers, and some Chinese and US manufacturers, who are best positioned to succeed in the market-with forecasts for each battery supplier.
Dr. Anderman is founder and chairman of the annual Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC), the tenth of which is scheduled for 17-21 May 2010 in Orlando, Florida. Dr. Anderman is also chair of the SAE International Vehicle Battery Summit in Shanghai, China, 1-2 September 2010. (Earlier post.) The Summit is co-sponsored by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China (SAE-China), and organized in cooperation with Advanced Automotive Batteries USA and the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATARC).
This is another study - peak oil has economically passed.
The next US $4/gal gas will NOT fall back to $2 something and the EV "0.13% of the 2015 new-vehicle market" will sell out in months.
Posted by: kelly | 29 April 2010 at 05:03 PM
The Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB) the (self proclaimed) focal information source for the industry says "EVs plus PHEVs will be 1% of the market by 2020" ?
HOLY SH%# !
I hope they are wrong - but they should know, including knowing about gas prices.
If they are under estimating by a fator of 2 . .
No, wait; Even if they are under by a fator of 10 (TEN), I say;
we are doomed.
Drill baby drill.
Posted by: ToppaTom | 29 April 2010 at 09:20 PM
Get more updates on this at http://community.ecoanswers.com/questions/tagged/cars
The factor they have given is much high . pratically it is less than that
Posted by: Account Deleted | 30 April 2010 at 04:58 AM
The present disaster in the Gulf of Mexico with BP's "Deepwater Horizon" oil rig explosion and massive spill will be a nail in big oil's coffin. The vastness of this disaster (11 men killed, billions in eco-damage) will provide more non-climate-related pressure to transition to low carbon energy.
The added cost of insuring deep water drilling will drive cost per barrel well beyond the present $85 fix. Unless oil is willing to pay for insurance out of their own pocket - which we have yet to see.
38 coal miners killed in Kentucky, and 11 on the BP oil rig - looks like an irrefutable argument against fossil monopolies.
Posted by: sulleny | 30 April 2010 at 06:45 AM
Sulleny: Unfortunately, even when everything goes wrong, the Billions in cleanup costs that BP will have to pay will do almost nothing to their bottom line. They made $5.6 Billion net profit last QUARTER!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100427/bs_nm/us_bp
I have trouble believing that this will have much effect on the market by any direct fiscal mechanism.
Posted by: Nat Pearre | 30 April 2010 at 08:01 AM
A 20% loss of net will give pause. The cost of image damage is immeasurable. Even playing heroic hazmat citizen does not alleviate the ill will generated by oil spills in eco-sensitive areas. BP's hard costs will be nearly a single quarter net income. The ongoing loss in public perception, PR, image and good will - wipe out annual net over the next ten years.
Just when the first realistic push to electrification is beginning.
Posted by: sulleny | 30 April 2010 at 01:09 PM
A Japan University group has recently found a low cost way to manufacture mixed materials, more efficient, higher energy, longer lasting, safer, quicker charge/discharge battery electrodes that could make batteries with higher all around performance for future e-vehicles and many other uses. Future (2020+) batteries performance will be very different from what we have today.
Posted by: HarveyD | 07 May 2010 at 11:51 AM