ARB will hold a one-day workshop on 2 March to discuss its preliminary thoughts and sources of information upon which to base the proposed standards and procedures.

Regarding future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission regulations (Pavley 2), staff is evaluating studies of the feasibility and cost of advanced technologies to reduce GHG emissions that could achieve widespread sales and acceptance in the 2017-2025 timeframe. At the workshop, staff will also discuss these studies and welcomes input from stakeholders.

LEV III

Despite the progress that has been made to date, major reductions of criteria pollutant emissions in California are still required to achieve mandated State and federal ambient air quality standards, according to ARB. The majority of California residents live in areas that do not meet permissible air quality levels for regulated air pollutants—mostly due to exceedances in atmospheric concentrations of ozone and particulate matter.

Light-duty passenger cars and trucks are responsible for a major fraction of ozone- forming emissions: NO_x (15% of California emissions), CO (42%), and ROG (21%). In addition, light-duty vehicles are responsible for lesser portions of California’s overall particulate matter (PM) emissions (2% of PM₁₀ and 3% of PM_2.5).

ARB staff is developing several major proposed modifications to the LEV program for the new LEV III regulations, with the fleet SULEV goal in mind.

New NMOG + NO_x standard. The LEV III proposal combines NMOG and NO_x standards into one NMOG+NO_x standard; introduces a more stringent combined NMOG+NO_x fleet average requirement for 2014-2022 model years; adds several emission standard bins; and increases the durability requirements for emission control systems.

ARB staff says that the primary logic for combining the two pollutants is to provide greater flexibility for manufacturers to reduce emissions with new emission control technologies. Staff’s technical research and industry input indicate that there are a number of technologies that are more effective in reducing one pollutant than the other, and vice versa.

ARB staff is proposing that the fleet-wide target for LEV III emissions for model year 2022 be equivalent to the combined NMOG+NO_x value of the existing SULEV emission standard. The existing SULEV emission levels are 0.020 g NMOG/mile and 0.01 g NO_x/mile, for a combined emission level of 0.030 g NMOG+NO_x/mile. Therefore, the proposed change from today’s fleet average emissions to the fully phased-in fleet-wide SULEV emission level would result in a decrease in NMOG+NO_x emissions from 0.112 to 0.030 g/mi—a 73% reduction.

—LEV III discussion paper

To provide a path for a gradual evolution toward new emission control technology, the existing regulatory system would be expanded from three emission categories (LEV, ULEV, and SULEV) to six emission categories (adding ULEV70, ULEV50, and SULEV20) that could be utilized by manufacturers for fleet emission averaging.

Medium-duty vehicles. Medium-duty vehicles (MDVs) are either certified using the chassis dynamometer test procedure or by the engine dynamometer test procedure. Vehicles that are engine certified include incomplete gasoline vehicles and those powered with diesel engines. Currently, manufacturers are required to certify 40% of their chassis-certified vehicles to the LEV standard and 60% to the ULEV standard. All vehicles certified using the engine dynamometer test procedure must certify to the ULEV standard.

Under the LEV III proposal, ARB is not proposing to modify the emission standards for engine dynamometer certified vehicles. However, ARB staff is proposing to combine the NMOG+NO_x standards and increase the stringency of the emission requirements for chassis-certified MDVs.

PM Standard. The existing particulate matter (PM) standard for LEV, ULEV, and SULEV certification levels is 0.01 g PM/mile, or 10 milligrams/mile (mg/mi). Since gasoline vehicles emit generally at or below 1.0 mg PM/mi, or about 90% lower than the standard, the primary impact of the 10 mg/mi standard has been to assure the use of particulate filters on diesel-fueled vehicles.

ARB staff is proposing to reduce the permissible PM levels for new vehicles.

The stringency of the proposed PM standard has not been determined; however, staff is interested in ensuring foremost that new vehicle PM emissions levels do not gradually increase due to the emergence of new increased combustion efficiency engines. To ensure that PM emissions do not increase, the new PM standard will likely be between 2 and 4 mg/mile, depending on ongoing ARB emission testing and analysis.

One important determination will be whether the proposed PM standard would effectively require particulate filters for gasoline direct injection technology, which is expected to become widespread as manufacturers comply with federal GHG regulations from model years 2012-2016. Staff has received input from a number of manufacturers suggesting that a standard of 3 mg PM/mi can be met for gasoline direct injection engines without requiring the use of particulate filters.

—LEV III discussion paper

Durability. To help reduce this gap between the durability requirement and real-world vehicle lifetime, the LEV III proposal would phase-in a new 150,000-mile durability requirement.

Evaporative emissions. Staff proposes to require all light-duty vehicles to comply with the zero evaporative standard. This would result in at least a 30% emission reduction from current evaporative emissions.

In addition...staff proposes to update the California certification gasoline specifications to include approximately 10% ethanol by volume (E10), which is representative of what is now sold at the pump. Staff believes the technology required to meet the zero evaporative standard even on arguably a more “severe” fuel such as E10 (i.e., in terms of potentially generating more evaporative emissions) is available and cost-effective.

—LEV III discussion paper

Resources

• Preliminary Discussion Paper—Amendments to California’s Low-Emission Vehicle Regulations for Criteria Pollutants—LEV III