BCG may underestimate battery technology evolution. A Japan Group has already developed a potentially much lower cost roll to roll PRINTED combo solar cell - battery that could evolve into many new applications.

Transparent window panes that could simultaneously covert sun energy and store it for night time use or to recharge PHEV-BEV on-board batteries could be possible by 2020/2030.

Next generation (not neccessarily lithium) batteries may have 5 to 10x the energy density and 1/40 the cost of current lithium batteries by 2020/2030.

Much better storage units at much lower price will be developed in the next 10 years. Any forecast based on current lithium batteries will likely be unreliable.

The 1997 Rav-4 EV-95 battery already has over a dozen years of proven 100 mile per charge performance.

If batteries (EV) have improved by just five percent per year(no where near Moore's Law's ~40%/year electronics improvements), range should still be over 80% better - not to mention large cost reductions with mass production.

Every ICE car with a starter/alternator electrical system is a hybrid anyway, so enlarge the electric motor and eliminate the transmission - enlarge the generator and range extend with a cheap 40 hp constant speed Wankle, if needed.

Then, use 20 percent of the 1997 EV cell technology if new battery costs are still so incredibly high.

The motor/battery have the needed torque for acceleration and it only takes ~20 hp to maintain 70 mph.

Thus, a typical new vehicle price with a fraction of present fuel use and without range anxiety.

Likely, many GCC readers can envision better combinations than present gas-guzzling 1000-moving-part ICE offerings.

In 2020 the cost of gasoline will be, most likely, much higher than it is today (without huge new discoveries of oil). That will change the EV equation.

"The report explores four main questions:" which equals the four sides of a box they didn't let themselves think outside of.

"the leaf rents the battery for about as much as a car and then also sells you the car itself for about as much as a normal car"

Where did you get that info? I'm following the Leaf closely and as far as I know they haven't released any specifics on the battery lease, other than to confirm that the total cost of ownership of the car will be equal to or less than an equivalent regular car. Therefore, they couldn't lease the battery for as much as a car (on a $12,000 battery?!?!?!?), otherwise they would be lying about their "total cost of ownership".

"But there is no reason we are entitled to apply Moore's Law"

I think the 10 trillion dollar potential market may provide some incentive. Is anyone here inside Nissan? How do we know what they are or aren't developing? Sorry, but GM's batteries are no indication of what Nissan is doing internally. Considering the commitment a large automaker like Nissan has put behind EV's, I have a feeling they may be somewhat optimistic.

Mark I think your confusing what nissan hopes to do in the future with what they plan at the start. They hope to get the costs down to the same as a normal car eventualy not right now.

Can one provide a majority of mass production examples NOT resulting in large cost reductions?

With overall human knowledge and computing power doubling every few years, a 5% annual improvement in a highly funded, focused technology like batteries is pretty minimal - unless maybe one's still using Windows 98.

Chris O may have a realistic approach to evaluating the tremendous problems always facing EVs.

Batteries are still too expensive.

There seem to be many claiming 20 years until EVs really make a difference.

I don't care - it’s just talk - time will tell.

And someday soon one of BYD's promises will come close to reality.

- EXCEPT - UNLESS - "they" screw up our future in some huge costly endeavor that bankrupts us and/or they prevent the speedy evolution to EVs or FCVs and even much improved ICEs. But someone NOT pursuing something (as with GM & the EV1) does not prevent it’s evolution.

Although controller costs are dropping rapidly they are not the problem and batteries do not contain Windows or any other software.

Moore's law is a trend applicable to many fields but not all, for instance lead-acid batteries have about doubled in price in the last 6 years with no change in performance (Li-Ion batteries are probably the next step, maybe not).

You should consider that world wide, MANY people / institutions / companies are desperately trying to find the affordable battery (and affordable nuclear fusion power and cheap PV cells, etc.). Everyone knows there is a multi-billion dollar potential market - no one can rationally believe that none have realized that costs will drop by some limited amount if they are mass produced or that Moore’s law MUST make it happen.

Yes, we can sit here and debate about how fast battery cost will come down to be "competitive" with regular cars. And Big Oil can fund all the biased studies it wants to try to sway public opinion.

But the fact remains that only a few EV's need to get to market. Then everyone will have a friend of a friend who has one. The word will get out about how much better they are than regular cars. Soon a significant portion of the population will have had a chance to ride in one. And this year when Nissan releases the Leaf and people realize that you can get this increased value at no more cost than a regular car, the cat will be out of the bag, and no amount of Big Oil manipulation will be able to change public opinion because people will be able to experience with their own eyes and bodies that it isn't true.

Then the only thing left for Big Oil to do will be to promote misinformation about how producing electricity is worse for the environment than burning gasoline, but this will again land on deaf ears because people's wallets will tell them that spending $25 a month to charge your car is better than $200 to buy gasoline. This will be happening later this year!

"But the fact remains that only a few EV's need to get to market. Then everyone will have a friend of a friend who has one."

Before '..a friend of a friend who has one' saturation, never forget that auto firms leased over 5,000 EVs in the 1990s before they took 90% of them back for crushing.

It's been said that auto/oil firms actually promoting an EV electric future is like a fuhrer becoming a rabbi.

Batteries are still too expensive.

A tired old assertion with no support whatsoever. Meanwhile, more and more hybrids continue to be successfully brought to market, with PHEVs and BEVs a year away from rolling off the production lines. My hybrid hits 10 yrs in 2010 and is still running strong.

Even in 2020, consumers will find this price of $8,000 to $10,000 to be a significant part of the vehicle’s overall cost. They will carefully evaluate the cost savings of driving an electric car versus an ICE-based car against the higher up-front cost. It will be a complex purchase decision involving an evaluation of operating costs, carbon benefits, and potential range limitations, as well as product features.

No no no. People do not 'carefully evaluate'. Whatever the neighbours have, they want to have too. Big SUV's and trucks? Where was the careful evaluation when most people didn't need them? It was (and still is I guess) a fad, that's why people want them. Most people buy them simply because they feel good driving around in them. Buying a car is for 90% an emotional and 10% a rational decision.

Look at the Prius, why was it a success? For emotional reasons, not because people carefully evaluated its cost compared to other vehicles. People simply wanted to be seen in a Prius because it was green and different. That can happen for EV's too. Or the opposite: people refusing to consider them, even if the TOC is half that of an ICE car.