A recent report from the Environmental Defense Fund indicates that electric vehicle sales volumes are growing at a rapid pace, signalling an epochal shift in the auto industry over the next decade.
The Electric Vehicle Market Update, the fifth in a series of reports tracking EV growth point outs,
- The disruption of the supply chain during Covid has affected the automobile industry in the last few years.
- Despite that and other numerous issues, the electric vehicle sector has gained traction in the previous year.
- According to the research, worldwide and US electric vehicle sales increased by 40% and 4%, respectively over the year.
Also,
- Global EV sales quadrupled in 2019, while sales in the United States established new highs.
- Tesla produced a record number of electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2022.
For the last century, we have been witnessing tremendous growth in the digital sector but the automobile industry was pretty stagnant when it comes to how the vehicle was propelled. We were using the same 4 stroke engines to drive our modern cars for a century and the period 2025-2035 is going to change that.
Disrupting The Industry With A Total Shift
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine have announced that “the era from 2025-2035 might bring the greatest fundamental shift in the 100-plus year history of the car,”
But what does that even mean?
Yes, there were huge changes in the automotive industry throughout the years. Some of the cars are faster, luxurious and thrilling while some of them served basic purposes like being efficient and cost-effective. Starting from the humble Model T, the Beetle, Rolls Royces, and the Toyotas, the Fords all have bought massive changes in the industry in one area or another.
The problem is that they all work on the same principle of operations and the only distinguishing factor was how refined is the engine beneath that, everything was pretty the same. But now we are going to replace the engine altogether with more efficient electric motors and that is going to be a game-changer.
But why now and not a decade back? Let’s answer that question now.
Driving Forces Behind
According to the research, dropping battery prices will drive and accelerate this shift, allowing EVs to attain price parity with internal-combustion automobiles and market supremacy by 2035. The report says that the automakers would invest more than $515 billion between now and 2025 in creating new EV models and battery production facilities.
According to the research, 13 companies intend to invest in battery factories in six locations in the United States and $75 billion is the expected expenditure. This will almost certainly necessitate a jumpstart on work on the American supply chain; the Biden administration, for example, just declared that it will employ the Defense Development Act to boost the production of electric vehicle batteries.
According to the estimate, more than 100 electric vehicle models will be available in the United States by 2025, covering a wide range of market categories.
Now let us look at the companies who are ready to transform themselves from their conventional theme into a total EV culture.
Companies Making The Shift
There is no longer any dispute that the automobile industry is transitioning to electric vehicles. Every major carmaker is offering battery vehicles, and plug-in hybrid models are becoming more common. However, several automakers have gone even farther, announcing dates for when they would solely create “electrified” automobiles (batteries and hybrids) and/or pure electric vehicles. Others have established firm deadlines for when internal-combustion engines will be phased out
Stages in Electrification
Electrification is divided into three stages. A hybrid vehicle runs on gasoline plus a little amount of electricity; the battery powers the car for a few miles and then recharges as it slows down or descends. Hybrid vehicles improve fuel efficiency, but they aren’t considered a long-term option. A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV or plug-in) has a battery that is about ten times the size of a hybrid and can drive the car for 20 to 50 miles before the gasoline engine kicks in, allowing it to operate as a fully electric commuter car Monday through Friday and as a traditional car on weekends. It’s a technology that will last till 2030 or 2040. Finally, there are BEVs which are entirely run on battery alone and have no relationship with a gasoline engine.
Now the conventional companies face the huge problem of transitioning from an ICE engine culture to an EV culture and this can be scary for the big corporates who have been operating with ICE-powered cars.
The main obstacles faced by the conventional manufacturers in shifting to EVs are,
- Training of salesforce and workforce.
- Redesigning the portfolio and marketing strategy.
- Revisit the supply chain structure.
- Getting new suppliers and OEMs.
- Research and development of new technologies and products.
Now let us look at some old-timers who are bravely embracing the opportunity.
1. Bentley
Bentley is perhaps the least probable contender for early electrification on this list, but they are all in.
“The future of Bentley will be totally electric. There will be no combustion engines in use by 2030. We’re not just working on one electric car; we’re working on a whole family of electric vehicles.”
-Adrian Hallmark CEO
Some of the remarkable moves from Bently are,
- By 2026, all of Benly’s vehicles will be plug-in hybrids or all-electric
- Tailpipes will be obsolete by 2030.
- Bentley’s first electric vehicle is anticipated to debut in 2025, and it will be an SUV based on the VW Group’s Artemis platform.
2. BMW
In terms of purely electric vehicles, as opposed to plug-in hybrids, the Bavarian automaker is a lone voice among German automakers. According to CEO Oliver Zipse, that gas engine development will continue and demand internal combustion “will remain robust for many years to come”.
BMW, on the other hand, is unmistakably BEV-electrifying,
- According to the CEO, by the end of 2025, BMW will have delivered a total of about two million completely electric vehicles to consumers
- Most of BMW’s top-selling models, including the X3, X5, 3 Series, 5 Series, and 7 Series, have plug-in variants
- BMW is expecting to grow sales of fully electric models by well over 50% per year over the next few years which is more than 10 times the figure for 2020.
- By 2030, the company said approximately half its global sales will be battery cars.
3. Ford
The F-150 Lightning, an electric version of the best-selling truck in the United States, made a major sensation, in part because it will deliver 230 miles of range for less than $40,000. The Maverick, a compact hybrid truck, is likewise extremely reasonably priced ($19,995). Ford is investing $22 billion in battery electric vehicles through 2025 and wants to be carbon neutral by 2050, but hybrids with gas engines will continue to play a role.
4. General Motors
the General aims to discontinue selling gas and diesel vehicles by 2035. It’s an ambitious objective according to GM. Cadillac division, on the other hand, is fully committed to electrifying. The division said that it will not sell any new internal-combustion engine vehicles, but will upgrade some existing models.
Some of the updates from the GM group are,
- Cadillac’s whole lineup will be electrified by 2030.
- The Lyriq crossover SUV will be the company’s initial product next year.
- The electric Hummers will be available in pickup and SUV configurations, with truck manufacturing starting this autumn.
- Chevrolet also just improved the Bolt EV, and an electric version of the Silverado pickup using Ultium batteries will be available in 2023 or 2024, with a range of 400 miles.
- GM plans to be carbon neutral by 2040,
5. Honda
After 2022, the Japanese manufacturer will solely offer electric and hybrid vehicles in Europe. Honda claims that by 2030, 40% of its North American vehicle sales will be battery-electric or hydrogen and that all gas cars would be phased out by 2040.
In 2024, GM will build Honda’s first two electric vehicles (one Honda SUV named the Prologue and one Acura), but Dave Gardner, a North American vice president, says, “It’s our ambition to produce in our own factories.” We will undoubtedly make use of that resource.” Honda is one of a few automakers promoting hydrogen (fuel cells) as a viable alternative to batteries.
6. Hyundai-Kia
Hyundai Motor Group has not stated if it would become all-electric, but it has stated that it will invest $7.4 billion in the production of future EVs in the United States by 2025. Hyundai’s electric vehicle manufacturing will begin in the fall with the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6.
The company is hoping,
- In 2021, it was stated that internal-combustion engine models will be reduced by 50%.
- Hyundai has also made a significant investment in fuel cells, particularly in its native market of Korea.
- Kia wants to sell half a million battery vehicles annually by 2026, with seven specialised battery electrics on the way by the end of 2027.
- In 2029, electric vehicles (including hybrids) are predicted to account for 25% of worldwide sales.
7. Jaguar Land Rover
By 2030, the brand will be all-electric, with battery versions of the whole portfolio, thanks to a $3.4 billion yearly investment in new technologies under the “Reimagine” initiative. The Jaguar I-Pace is already on the market, and a new version will most likely be based on JLR’s new Electric Modular Architecture (EMA) platform. In 2024, an electric Land Rover will be released, followed by an electric Range Rover. Over the following five years, six electric Land Rovers will be produced.
8. Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes stated that starting in 2025, all new car platforms would be electric-only. “We really want to go for it… and be dominantly, if not entirely, electric by the end of the decade,” CEO Ola Källenius told Reuters. He also stated that by 2025, investment in fuel technology will be “near to nil.” And while getting completely electric by 2030 is a goal, Källenius did not set a clear timeframe for eliminating all fossil fuels. By 2026, Mercedes expects to have cut its investments in combustion engines and plug-in hybrids by 80%. Between 2022 and 2030, more than 40 billion euros ($47 billion) will be invested in electric vehicles. This fall, the Mercedes EQS electric luxury vehicle of 2022 will hit the showrooms.
9. Rolls-Royce
Rolls-Royce is said to be working on a first EV based on the Phantom named the Silent Shadow. The new BMW iX SUV’s technology is likely to be used in the model. In July, BMW CEO Oliver Zipse stated that electric vehicles will be available “in 90% of segments from the small class to the ultra-luxury category.” as we know, Rolls-Royce is the ultra-luxury from BMW.
10. Toyota
The Toyota bZ4X Concept electric SUV, created with Subaru and unveiled in Texas in June, is the vision for the first in a worldwide series of battery-electric cars to be released under the Toyota bZ brand umbrella according to Toyota which is betting big on fuel cells.
Toyota’s plans include,
- By 2025, Toyota will have 70 electrified models.
- 15 of which will be battery electric vehicles and seven of which will be sold under the Beyond Zero bZ brand.
- Toyota’s pickup trucks will be electrified as well, with Toyota aiming to be carbon neutral by 2050.
- Toyota is the market leader in hybrids, with the RAV4, Highlander, Prius, and Camry hybrids, as well as the Honda CR-V, topping the list of top five sellers.
- The Toyota RAV4, Highlander, Prius, and Camry hybrids, as well as the Honda CR-V, are the hybrids that got the world thinking about electrification (the Prius in particular).
11. Volkswagen
According to Volkswagen, battery electric vehicles will account for 70% of their sales in Europe by 2030, up from a predicted 35% now. The VW brand aims to sell more than 50% of full-electric vehicles in the United States and China by 2030. The Volkswagen Group is developing 70 new electric vehicles, with many currently on the market (including the Porsche Taycan, Audi e-Tron and VW ID. 4). The sleek Project Trinity electric car, which is set to debut in 2026, is one of them. By 2024, Audi’s Project Artemis plans to deploy a “very efficient” electric vehicle. VW has stated that 2026 will be the final year in which it will introduce a combustion platform.
12. Volvo
the Swedish company will solely produce electrified vehicles by 2030. The business’s sales approach will also change: “All completely electric vehicles will be sold exclusively online,” according to the company. The XC40 Recharge, Volvo’s first all-electric vehicle, was released in 2020. Polestar is a brand owned by Geely (Volvo now owns 49.5%). Polestar 1 (an exclusive plug-in hybrid) and Polestar 2 are all-electric performance premium vehicles (on the same platform as the XC40 Recharge). Volvo estimates that half of its global sales will be entirely electric by 2025, with the remainder being hybrids.
Conclusion
However, not all studies are as upbeat about the future of electric vehicle sales. ABB, a Swiss technology company that provides battery plant equipment, claims that there won’t be enough battery factories to sustain EVs expected to surge above internal combustion in the 2030s. Other studies have shown that high raw materials prices may delay predicted battery cost reductions for the time being.
But surely these concerns will be addressed and solved because… Well you know the best brains are working on it !!!
