Is Elon the Man in the White Suit?
In my childhood, I enjoyed watching English movies — having recently left the UK and emigrated to Australia. One of those, I still remember, is Man in the White Suit from Ealing Studios, produced in 1951. Wikipedia describes it as a “satirical science fiction comedy.” It looks like this film has predicted the radical transformation of the global auto industry. Is Elon the man in the white suit?
Set amongst the clothing mills of Yorkshire, The Man in the White Suit tells the story of a young research chemist, Sidney Stratton, who invents a cloth which repels dirt and never wears out. “Stratton is lauded as a genius until both management and the trade unions realise the consequence of his invention; once consumers have purchased enough cloth, demand will drop precipitously and put the textile industry out of business. The managers try to trick and bribe Stratton into signing away the rights to his invention but he refuses. Managers and workers each try to shut him away, but he escapes.”
The film ends with Stratton pursued by a mob, who catch him but then before they can inflict harm, the suit disintegrates in their hands. The workers, the union bosses, and the mill owners laugh hysterically — relieved that their industry will continue. Disruption has been avoided. Their livelihoods are safe.
The current story of the disruption of the auto industry will not end the same way. Elon is more than the man in the white suit. Furthermore, with BYD at Tesla’s side, the auto industry will not be same and we will not have business as usual for the rest of our lives. And it may happen more quickly than you think — 2027 perhaps? Certainly by 2030. The batteries will be there.
A post on Facebook sent me into this reverie. Dwayne Eddie has just announced to the Australian public that his 2019 Tesla Model 3 SR+ (same as mine) has just exceeded 250,000 trouble-free kilometres. That’s twice the mileage I have done in my Tesla, and way past the point where many would have considered replacing their vehicle. Despite his neighbour saying “surely, you’ve had to replace the battery a couple of times,” he hasn’t.
FUD takes its toll, and even EV advocates as strong as myself have been wondering how long this technological marvel would last and what we would replace it with. The answer might be: a long while yet, and with a car that hasn’t been invented yet! Though, the wife would like a Cybertruck!
We met Dwayne and his car at the high-speed charger in Warwick when we lived there. He told us of his work driving long distances around southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. He has also done some long trips as far as Tasmania (over 2,500 kilometers, or over 1,500 miles) and up to North Queensland (a similar distance).
The common wisdom/sense of my youth was that once a vehicle had reached 60,000 miles, or 100,000 km, it was time to get a new one. What if that is no longer true? What if most battery electric vehicles last many times that? What will the economic impacts be, especially for countries like US, Germany, and Japan that rely so heavily on auto exports. “Demand will drop precipitously….” Although, I don’t expect a total collapse. At present, the global auto industry produces and sells about 77 million cars a year. What will happen if it only needs to produce 40 million a year, because EVs last twice as long as ICE vehicles? What if they last even longer? What automakers will survive?
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Although there are internal combustion engines that will do high mileages, they are not common. My Hyundai Sonata was chugging along well at 240,000 km, but that was after I had replaced the automatic gearbox for $4,500.
What jobs will go? Yesterday, my neighbour needed a lift because his Honda CRV broke down (again). He tells me that he spent $1700 on maintenance last year. Yesterday, it was the fuel pump that needed replacing. I joked that he is getting a new car once part at a time. He didn’t laugh. In an EV world, we won’t need mechanics that can fit fuel pumps, or the manufacturers that make them.
No wonder car dealers in the US are writing letters complaining that they are not ready for the EV transformation. Time they got ready! It would be a weird world where all countries were ahead of the US in electrification. MAGA won’t work if the USA is behind in the current megatrend. Even Ethiopia is banning petrol cars. I guess they don’t have the vested interests and lobby groups.
If EVs last twice as long as an ICEVs, might that lead to car rental agencies, sales reps, rideshare drivers and government fleets doubling the length of time they kept a vehicle? That would have an initial impact on the second-hand car market and on the sale of new vehicles, and a long term effect on how many cars need to be produced each year. Which carmakers will survive?
Let’s get back to Dwayne. He tells us, as he answers questions on his post, that his max battery state of charge (SOC) has possibly diminished by 10%. Though, he can’t be sure, as he hasn’t charged the car to 100% in ages. Asked how much he has spent on maintenance, he replies “besides tyres/wipers/windscreen additive/car washes, I’ve spent $165 on a new 12V battery (at 219,000 km) and $530 on the upper control arms (at 178,000 km) as well as having the brake fluid tested twice for $30 each time.”
A reader points out that “in the newer Model 3/Y, they don’t have a 12V lead-acid battery. They have a 16V Li-ion battery which should last as long as the car,” which would save a little more on maintenance. Dwayne is on his way to a free car because, with petrol at over $2 per litre (roughly $9 a gallon), Dwayne’s car has saved him $50,000 on petrol alone.
Another respondent writes: “This. Is. Exactly. What. I. Needed. To. See.”
“I love this — gives me great overall confidence!”
“Congrats and thank you for restoring my original faith.”
Asked how long he intends to keep his current Tesla Model 3 SR+, Dwayne replies: “I’m aiming for 400k. I’ll keep it as long as it doesn’t start having reliability issues. There really isn’t a need to change it when the software updates make it similar to the later model years. Highland is tempting though but I’m a stubborn bugger and I need to prove to my very conservative father that EVs go the distance.” Ah, intergenerational bonding!
Needless to say, Wayne is not expecting too much for a trade-in when he finally does upgrade. But why not? If EVs can go beyond the distance of ICEVs, perhaps we can stop valuing them with the same metrics.
There are massive changes afoot, and many are focused on other things. When the penny drops, I expect the FUD to get worse and more to join the mob attacking the man in the white suit. Luddites are us!
Featured image designed by graphic designer Sydney John Woods and painted by Alfred Reginald Thomson (fair use).
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