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Tsinghua/Argonne Study Finds That Mass Use of EVs in China Could Result in Higher CO2 and Criteria Pollutant Emissions Than Conventional and Hybrid Gasoline Vehicles Due to Coal-Fired Generation of Electricity

Huo3
Fuel-cycle SO2 emissions of EVs compared to those of gasoline ICEVs and HEVs in China, current (left) and future (right). Credit: ACS, Huo et al. Click to enlarge.

A new study by researchers from Tsinghua University (China) and Argonne National Laboratory (US) concludes that the mass use of electric vehicles in China could result in multiple environmental issues, including higher emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants than from conventional and hybrid gasoline vehicles, because electricity is generated primarily from coal in China. The study was published online 24 May in the ACS journal Environmental Science & Technology.

The study examined the fuel-cycle CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions of EVs in China in both current (2008) and future (2030) periods and compared them with those of conventional gasoline vehicles and gasoline hybrids. The researchers found that while EVs do offer a very promising solution to energy issues due to their replacement of petroleum fuels, for now “the high pollution levels of coal-fired power plants will trade off EVs’ potential energy benefits in China”.

The vehicle population in China was about 63 million by 2008, and it is projected to be 550-730 million by 2050, 38-83% higher than that of the US in 2050. One important question raised is how to accommodate this large number of vehicles in terms of energy sources. Today in China one frequently proposed answer is electric vehicles (EVs), which could alleviate dependence on petroleum by using other energy sources such as coal and hydro...Nowadays, China is considered to be a very promising market for EVs.

The power of EVs is electricity from the grid. While EVs can offer attractive benefits in petroleum reduction, they could result in more CO2 emissions than conventional vehicles because of the fact that the majority of electricity is generated from coal in China. Another concern associated with EVs is that they could increase emissions of criteria pollutants like SO2 and NOx because power plants are believed to be the largest contributor to China’s SO2 and NOx emissions.

Huo2
Generation mix of the six interprovincial power grids in 2008. Credit: ACS, Huo et al. Click to enlarge.

China comprises six large interprovincial power grids: Northeast China, North China, Central China, East China, Northwest China, and South China. Coal and hydro are the two major energy sources of power generation in China, and the split between them varies by region. Coal-based power dominates in the Northeast and North generation mixes, with a proportion as high as 95-98%. The Northwest, Central, and South mixes consist of more than 22% hydro power, although coal is still the majority. The South and East grids also have 5% nuclear power.

Among the findings of the study:

  • CO2. EVs do not promise much benefit in reducing CO2 emissions currently, but greater CO2 reduction could be expected in future if coal combustion technologies improve and the share of non-fossil electricity increases significantly.

    The regions with smaller fractions of coal-based electricity should be the priority EV markets, such as the South, Central, and Northwest regions. As an example, the authors said, EVs are a good choice for Chongqing (Central) and Shenzhen (South), but HEVs would be a better choice than EVs for Beijing (North) and Shanghai (East) in terms of CO2 emission reduction.

  • SO2. Powered by the current electricity mix, EVs could cause a significant increase in SO2 emissions by 3-6 times relative to ICEVs and 5-10 times relative to HEVs. Gasoline vehicle exhausts contribute very little to total national SO2 emission (0.2% in 2006) but if they are replaced by EVs, the contribution would rise to 2-4%.

    EVs will pose a new challenge to China’s target of controlling the total amount of SO2 emissions. In the future, even with more advanced combustion technologies and 100% FGD penetration, the SO2 emissions of EVs would still be 1.3-5 times the emissions of ICEVs and 3-7 times the emissions of HEVs. Even with an additional 100% coal washing, which is infeasible in practice, it is not possible to bring the SO2 emissions of EVs down to the level of ICEVs and HEVs for most regions in China.

    —Huo et al.

  • NOx. China is currently implementing the Euro III vehicle emission standard nationwide (except for some large cities where Euro IV is already in effect, such as Beijing). The Euro IV and V standards are expected to be in place within 10 years. If charged by the current electricity mix, EVs would double the NOx emissions of Euro III gasoline vehicles. By 2030, the study found, EVs will still increase NOx emissions by 16-86% compared to Euro V gasoline vehicles if the penetration of SCR for NOx treatment at the coal plants is zero. If the application ratio of SCR reaches 20%, EVs charged by the generation grid with 50% coal-based electricity could have lower NOx emissions than gasoline vehicles.

    EVs charged by higher coal-intensity generation grids would require higher SCR penetration, e.g., electricity with 80% coal will need at least 44% SCR penetration. The widespread application of SCR will be the key for EVs to compete with gasoline vehicles in terms of NOx emissions.

    —Huo et al.

As analyzed in this work, it is the current high emissions of power plants that are going to make EVs a less favorable option than other alternatives in China, such as HEVs, which are more environmentally friendly, more commercially mature, and less cost-intensive. Currently, in the Chinese vehicle market, taking products of the BYD Company as an example, HEVs (20,000-25,000 US dollars) are much more expensive than conventional ICEVs (8000-10,000 US dollars) of equivalent size, but the price of EVs is even higher (>30,000 US dollars). The costs and benefits of different technological options need to be further explored.

—Huo et al.

The authors make several recommendations to make EVs a more attractive environmental option for China, including:

  • Special strategies for emission control of coal-fired power plants as the development of EVs progresses;
  • Designation of appropriate places with low carbon electricity for the introduction of EVs.
  • Wide application, with financial support of the government, of advanced coal combustion technologies, as well as technical measures to remove pollutants (such as SCR and coal cleaning).

...because power plants have a longer lifetime than vehicles, the technology shift in the power sector could be slower than that of the transportation sector. Therefore, coordinated policies between these two sectors are needed to reinforce EVs’ progress toward a cleaner future.

—Huo et al.

The work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Resources

  • Hong Huo, Qiang Zhang, Michael Q. Wang, David G. Streets and Kebin He (2010) Environmental Implication of Electric Vehicles in China. Environ. Sci. Technol., Article ASAP doi: 10.1021/es100520c

Comments

DaveD

I'd love to see the assumptions they make about the cars, how efficent they are (Wh per km, etc) and the emissions from their coal plants both now and in the future.

This is counter to any study I've found which shows the basic assumptions to get a real world conclusion vs hype from one side of the argument or the other (pro vs con EVs).

The links seem broken and I can't find the original report anywhere else. Has anyone else found a link?

Henry Gibson

This report misleads the people. The pollution near the automobiles will be greatly reduced and the source of the pollution can be upgraded quickly in regards to SO2. Also the actual CO2 and SO2 release of oil used as gasoline is not well known or well characterised. Much sulphur containing sour gas is just flared off at wells and refineries to produce SO2. Massive oil spills and methane releases in the countries producing the crude oil are not well measured and are not well characterized.

It takes 120 units of energy in crude oil to make 100 units of energy as gasoline. The units of energy needed to pump the oil through pipelines and tanker ships is not well known and rarely, if ever, directly measured. Oil in the ground is cheap, it is as free as solar energy. Oil producers can burn a lot of the oil in getting it to you.

Even the direct burning of crude oil instead of coal for the production of electricity does not greatly increase the amount of CO2 released per kilowatt hour

Five dollars a barrel is a very high estimate for the drilling costs and pumping costs and exploration costs for oil from the middle east. The rest of it is profit to speculators who are conspiring to restrict the supply to keep the price high.

The people who wish to promote the far higher priced so called renewable energy also will make every effort to protect their profits. There is no renewable energy it all comes from nuclear reactions. The sun will burn up the earth but there will be enough uranium and thorium and for the human race to burn until then.

After a million years plus fifty we will even burn hydrogen in fusion reactors and this will vastly increase our ability to produce plutonium for bombs or nuclear fuel. Practical Fusion has been just fifty years away for the past seventy years.

China and other countries that have coal must use it in any way they can to prevent this extortion by the oil price speculators. The energy in coal is one tenth the price or less than the energy in oil and this is why China and all other countries should use plug in hybrid electric cars even if all of the electricity comes from coal.

There are no complete statistics that can show that the use of Coal in only relatively modern coalfired power plants produces more CO2 release than the use of refined liquid fuels does on a well or mine to wheel basis. The electric car-coal_fired_generator combination is usually higher efficiency in regards to energy use and CO2 release and always can be. It definately reduces local NOX on the roads.

Every coal fired generator can be converted to capture most of the CO2 within a years time. Just try that with tens of thousands of automobiles. I do not recommend that this be done, but most of the SO2 could be.

Statistics on the release of CO2 per mile for electric cars operated on Coal Electricity were once available on the AC Propulsion or the WrightSpeed sites and they were favorable to the electric car. But the cost and the localized control of pollution is the important point.

This report may have its values skewed by funding of proaganda from the oil industry who's vast profits can vanish over night temporary and permanently as in France with nuclear electricity. It is cheaper to make hydrogen in France from nuclear electricity and then just burn it in ordinary automobile engines than the market price of crude oil during most of the recent years. IT IS about five or more times as efficient to use the electricity in electric cars than it is to burn the hydrogen in automobile engines.

It should be clear by now to the Chinese government that they should be making gasoline and diesel out of Coal for much lower costs. The chemical industry is already converting to gasified coal.

A great boost to the Chinese economy right now would be a massive project to build hundreds of coal to liquid fuels conversion plants. The construction costs would be loaned by the central government which can soon and always recoup them with a minimum tax on imported crude oil of $35. Eventually the capital costs of such factories should be paid off and then they can produce fuel at a lower cost than from oil even at $20.

The first factories should produce methanol which can be stored for long periods and used directly in automobiles without much inconvenience and with very low NOX and hydrocarbon release. Some automobile races required the use of clean burning methanol until ethanol became more politically correct.

Methanol is easy to convert to gasoline. Methanol is a very good and highly efficient cooking fuel; it requires only very cheap simple equipment for clean burning and can replace most uses of charcoal, propane or natural gas methane. Even natural gas requires more complicated equipment than methanol to cook with.

Many of the synthetic fuel factories should be located next to nuclear power generators to use the cheap and waste heat in the processes and sometimes even cheap electricity to produce hydrogen to use in the process.

One hundred percent of the used nuclear fuel from the standard US type and French type of reactors can be recycled into fuel for their Canadian type heavy water reactors but it is more cost effective to remove the fissioned atoms and mix in other depleted uranium or thorium first. The raw fuel cost for the heavy water reactors is then more than free because no expense is needed to store the major part of old fuel from the other reactors for millenia as it can now be used. The plutonium produced in such a cycle is impossible to use in atomic bombs because it has the wrong mix of isotopes but is useful to produce more energy.

All of the plutonium and uranium from unused nuclear weapons can also be mixed into the recycled used fuel where its value as a bomb fuel is permanently destroyed just by mixing.

Every pound of this ex bomb fuel replaces the use of about three million pounds of coal or more and it can be much more in some cycles. Studies indicate that a combined Candu Reactor and reprocessing cycle can operate without any fuel input but thorium after it is started, but it will not produce enough extra fuel for other reactors. Other cycles that use heavy water can even improve upon this very slightly.

Accelerator driven reactors and breeder reactors can do even better at producing new fuel. You can now drive almost CO2 free anywhere in France or Norway with its Hydroelectric power. But it is interesting that Norway is one of the largest producers and exporters of the addictive but necessary drug of the industrialized and also completely undeveloped societies of this earth, carbon.

Most people do not even know that they breathe out CO2. It is their demand for products and services that has increased the amount of carbon extracted from the earth where it was stored for millions of years. If the increase of CO2 removes all or a large percentage of people from the planet with global warming it is just natural feedback and would be the best thing for the other inhabitants of the planet.

Yeast puts out penicillin and other chemicals to eliminate other organisms around it. Humans do not use much botulism toxin, which is molecule for molecule one of the most concentrated poisons and much more effective and rapid than plutonium, to eliminate their neighbors we are just using CO2. Even at this point some plants could use more CO2 as the supplies of the gas to some greenhouses proves. Before humans the air at one time had much more CO2 and no oxygen but the plants poisoned it with oxygen. ..HG..

HarveyD

Garbage!!!!

sulleny

Argonne put its name on this? Or just more VR disinfo?

Engineer-Poet

I think the point is moot. China's coal resources are limited and its production will peak soon. It will shortly be in the position of importing increasing amounts of all of its fuels, unlike the USA (mostly self-sufficient in coal).

China is probably better off burning coal to run EVs than gasifying it to create dimethyl ether for diesel engines.

The Goracle

.

This is BLASPHEMY!!!

We, like Dr. Mann, et al, MUST work to see to it that this kind of garbage NEVER gets published again. How dare someone claim that our god be false.

Praise be to Algore!

.

Roger Pham

The article raises a very important consideration: The pollution of coal-fired power plants.

I would suggest to gasify coal into H2, and use H2 to run FCV's instead. This can double the energy utilization of coal (doubling the mileage for a given lump of coal) and allow one to sequester all the pollutants in coal. The residual sulfur, ash, and mercury in coal gasification can be very valuable as industrial raw materials, instead of being spewed into the air as pollutants.

fred schumacher

During the last big eastern blackout, air quality improved markedly. Autos were still on the road but coal fired power plants were off-line. Coal is a worse polluter.

Mannstein

Henry Gibson wrote:

"If the increase of CO2 removes all or a large percentage of people from the planet with global warming it is just natural feedback and would be the best thing for the other inhabitants of the planet."

Why wait for natural closed loop feedback mechanisms to reduce the population. Let's cut to the chase shall we and implement the Marxist, Leninist, Stalinist, Maoist, Pol Pot solution. According to the "Black Book of Communism" by Stephane Courtois et al the Commies got rid of 100 million last century in a matter of a few years.

Their excuse they did it for a higher cause.

The only question remaining is with whom shall we start.

I suggest Henry Gibson as first in line.

SJC

Mannstein,

You are just asking for a ban.

HarveyD

At the rate wind turbines and Solar panels are being installed in China, it may not need coal fired power plants energy for the local EVs. Secondly, if the 120+ planned nuclear power plants are built, manyof the the existing coal power plants could be shut down.

The power mix will change and each Kwh produced will be progressively cleaner.

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