Forecast: US Auto Sales to Climb in 2010, Hybrid Share as Well
13 December 2009
Edmunds.com, a leading online resource for automotive consumer information, forecasts that in 2010, approximately 11.5 million cars and light trucks will be sold in the United States. The industry is currently tracking to sell approximately 10.3 million cars and light trucks this year.
Edmunds.com analysts also predict that about 3.2% of 2010 sales will be hybrids, about 2.2% will be diesel and less than one percent will be electric. In 2009, hybrid market share will be approximately 2.8%. Edmunds.com anticipates a continued increase at the rate of about half a percentage per year for the foreseeable future.
In 2009, diesel market share will be approximately 2.1% of sales. In the past decade diesel's highest market share, 4.1%, was reached in 2006.
Given historical alternative fuel trends, the “early adopters” will boost electric car market share upon launch, but it will take some time before significant market share builds for the segment.
—Edmunds.com Senior Statistician Zhenwei Zhou, PhD
Sales of only 11.5 million vehicles in 2010? That seems to be very low unless the current R-Wall Street financial crisis last a few more years.
Electrified vehicle sales gainig only 0.5% new market share a year also seems to be under estimated. With appropriate measures, it could easily be 2 and 3 times that.
Chinese forecast are very different. Their market growth rate is now mny times that of USA.
Interesting years ahead and lets hope that the real markets will move faster than those forecasts.
Posted by: HarveyD | 13 December 2009 at 09:12 AM
We fell from 17 million units to 10 million in only a few years. There may be an increase in the coming years, but a larger market share will be foreign brands. This is a trend that has been going on for decades. Germany has 6 brands, Japan has more than 6 and the big three are becoming the smaller three.
Posted by: SJC | 13 December 2009 at 11:22 AM
Gentlemen these are positive signs. Falling annual sales reflects some element of economic sense. And, given the vast improvement in vehicle quality - people can drive a vehicle for ten years. Whereas in developing nations only a small percentage own automobiles - of course there will be far larger volume to new buyers.
the challenge for China is to see if they can skip the need for a vast ICE fleet and instead move directly to EVs. They have done this with telecoms - avoiding wiring the country and adopting wireless. Thanks to western innovation in cell technology.
Posted by: sulleny | 13 December 2009 at 05:45 PM
EVs could rise in sales as soon as battery prices come down enough. Battery prices should come down, given the use in HEV and PHEV increasing demand, if economies of scale are the issue. I tend to believe that prices for EVs will be above buyers utility perceptions and expectations. That is, they feel that a car with less range should cost less, not more.
Posted by: SJC | 14 December 2009 at 11:29 AM