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Pike Research Forecasts Global Market for Hybrid Light-Duty Vehicles in Fleet Sector to Grow at 17.5% CAGR 2010-2015; 740,000 Units per Year by 2015

Pikefleet
Annual hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales, global and fleet. Source: Pike Research. Click to enlarge.

According to a new report from Pike Research, the global market for hybrid-electric (HEV) light-duty vehicles in the fleet sector will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% during the years from 2010 to 2015, with vehicle sales surpassing 740,000 per year by the end of that period.

Pike anticipates the strongest growth in China (61.3% CAGR) as Chinese manufacturers launch hybrid models to meet increasingly stringent transportation emissions regulations. However, the United States is expected to be the largest fleet market for light-duty HEVs through 2015, with sales reaching 233,454 vehicles in that year (an 8.1% CAGR from 2010).

Worldwide, HEV fleet sales will reach 740,704 vehicles in 2015, accounting for 3.7% of global light duty vehicle fleet sales in 2015, according to the Pike forecast. The largest single market, the United States, will see hybrids reach 7.4% of light duty vehicle fleet sales.

Pike senior analyst Dave Hurst adds that passenger cars will be the largest segment for HEVs in fleet markets, but some of the highest growth rates over the next five years will be in the SUV and pickup truck segments, particularly in the United States. For plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Pike Research anticipates that passenger cars will be even more prominent, representing more than 80% of the fleet market in 2015, due to automakers’ focus on consumer markets for PHEV model launches.

There is a compelling case for hybrid fleet vehicles from the perspective of fuel efficiency and environmental impact, but a number of economic challenges still remain for the industry. Lifetime costs for HEVs, including the cost of the vehicle plus fuel, can often be higher than ICE vehicles. However, a number of government incentives are helping to close the gap for fleet operators. In addition, many fleet managers are electing to purchase HEVs as a means of complying with requirements to reduce fleet emissions, as well as to hedge against higher fuel costs in the future.

—Dave Hurst

Pike Research’s study, “Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets”, analyzes the opportunities and challenges for light-duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs in commercial fleet markets around the world. The study examines global growth drivers and business case considerations for fleet managers, and includes detailed market forecasts, segmented by world regions and key countries, as well as profiles for key industry players.

Comments

HarveyD

Do we expect too much from China in the next 5 years? If all these forecast are realized, we may be falling behind soon if we have not already started to do so. This will be difficult for our ego.

HarveyD

This is many times more than the 2% to 3% estimates we had before.

SJC

"the United States will see hybrids reach 7.4% of light duty vehicle fleet sales."

That certainly beats the "2% then flat" projections of a few years ago. Where are those so called experts now?

wintermane2000

I doubt this will happen...

http://autos.yahoo.com/articles/autos_content_landing_pages/1523/generation-y-giving-cars-a-pass/

As I said before the younger gen realy doesnt give as much of a poo about cars. Studies show they are moving to where they can do without cars entirely. God knows what the gebn after then will be like but I highly doubt they will worship the almighty car either.

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