Navigant forecasts global annual sales of LDVs of 122.6M by 2035, up 38% from 2015
06 July 2015
In a new report, Navigant Research forecasts global annual sales of light duty vehicles will reach 122.6 million by 2035, up 38% from a projected 88.8 million this year, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6%. Navigant Research expects the number of LDVs in use on roads worldwide to grow by 57.1% from 2015 to 2035 to almost 1.9 billion units.
Navigant expects sales of conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will fall significantly over the forecast period, experiencing a CAGR of -6.6%. As a result, the share of vehicles in use that are conventional ICE vehicles will fall from more than 91% in 2015 to under 40% by 2035. Navigant expects ICE vehicles will be replaced by start-stop vehicles (SSVs), which will grow from representing more than 4% of vehicles in use in 2015 to nearly 49% in 2035. Hybrids (HEVs) are expected to account for nearly 3%, while PHEVs (plug-in hybrids), BEVs (battery-electric vehicles), NGVs (natural gas vehicles), PAGVs (propane autogas vehicles), and FCV (fuel cell vehicles) s together are projected to add up to more than 9% of the LDVs in use in 2035.
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Although the mix of vehicle technologies will change significantly, alterations to the primary fuel landscape will be more modest, according to Navigant. LDVs primarily fueled by gasoline will fall as a percentage of the overall global fleet from 82% in 2015 to under 71% in 2035.
Fuel efficiency gains from diesel engines will increase diesel’s share of the fleet from nearly 15% in 2015 to nearly 20% in 2035. By 2035, nearly 5% of vehicles will be fueled by natural gas, nearly 2% by propane autogas, and less than 1% by hydrogen. Vehicles fueled exclusively by electricity will represent 1.3% of global LDVs in use; however, PEVs (which also includes PHEVs) will represent more than 2.2%, according to the forecast.
The enormous dependency on crude oil derivatives in the LDV market has pushed governments worldwide to implement policies and programs that encourage the adoption of various fuel efficiency and alternative fuel technologies through infrastructure development, financial penalties or benefits for automakers’ attainment of fuel efficiency regulations, and economic incentives for early adopters. While most governments have categorically supported a comprehensive strategy to reduce oil dependency in the transportation sector, the depth of that support varies with each vehicle technology. Additionally, regional fuel costs and refueling infrastructure availability play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels regardless of government backing. As such, the adoption of light duty (LD) AFVs and fuel- efficient technologies varies significantly from region to region.
More than 1.2 billion vehicles are on the world’s roads today, more than 95% of which belong to the LDV segment, which includes highway-capable passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles weighing up to 10,000 lbs.
The report analyzes the global LDV market in eight segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), NGVs, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), propane autogas vehicles (PAGVs) and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
Gross underestimation for electrified vehicles % by 2035?
Posted by: HarveyD | 06 July 2015 at 08:13 AM
How are Stop-Start Vehicles not mere modifications of conventional vehicles rather than a separate technology altogether?
I think doing this exaggerates the speed of the demise of the internal combustion engine.
IMO, ICEs are going to be around for quite some time in the future, whether augmented by stop-start tech or not.
Posted by: Brent Jatko | 06 July 2015 at 12:12 PM