Petroleum. The STEO projects that petroleum CO₂ emissions will decline by 4% in 2009, primarily due to declines in transportation sector consumption. Although little change in CO₂ emissions from motor gasoline is expected in 2009, CO₂ emissions from other transportation petroleum fuels, particularly jet fuel (a 9.8% decline in consumption), distillate fuel oil (an 8.2% decline) and residual fuel oil (a 6.3% decline), are expected to fall significantly.

CO₂ emissions from petroleum in 2010 are projected to increase by 0.6%, which is lower than the 1.5% increase in total petroleum consumption primarily because of the continued growth in the biofuel share of the transportation fuel markets.

Coal. The EIA projects that fuel switching in the electric power sector and declines in industrial use will lead to a 7.9% decline in coal-based CO₂ emissions for 2009. Increases in coal consumption, primarily in the electric power sector, is expected to lead to a 1.1% increase in coal CO₂ emissions in 2010.

Natural Gas. Natural gas-based CO₂ emissions are projected to decline by 2.3% in 2009 despite significant consumption increases in the electric power sector. Natural gas consumption declines in 2009 for all other major sectors. CO₂ emissions from natural gas are expected to grow slightly in 2010 as natural gas consumption increases by 0.7%.

The STEO is a monthly forecast of energy supply, consumption, and prices that looks forward from 12 to 24 months (every January the outlook is extended through December of the following year). The STEO provides a history and forecast of CO₂ emissions from the consumption of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

The CO₂ emission projections are based on STEO projections of fossil fuel consumed. The calculated CO₂ emissions factors are based on historical emissions and consumption reported in the Monthly Energy Review (MER).

Resources

• Short-Term Energy Outlook, 11 August 2009 release

• Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook