Remaining world oil needs to be rationed for the future. The only viable present alternate transportation technology we have is light electric vehicles.

Even forty years from now, diesel may remain the key heavy lifter.

I think IEA underestimate the growth rate for coal and natural gas and overestimate it for oil. Natural gas and coal are currently much cheaper than oil so there will be a substitution effect of oil for natural gas and coal. Oil is not going to be less costly to produce in the future because you need to drill deep see, drill in the arctic, extract oil from tar sands and oil shale and extract oil from old fields using injections of CO2 and water. None of these new sources of oil are cheap compared to how we used to drill oil in large on-shore fields of sweet crude. This cost scenario is unlike natural gas where horizontal fracturing in on-shore shale formations will actually lower the cost of producing natural gas in the future. Moreover, the cost of coal digging will be lowered by use of even bigger diggers and trucks. The cost of electricity from coal power could drop from use of more efficient coal power plants.

In my opinion mankind needs a miracle to avoid that coal burning in China and India will ruin the global climate and make it a lot hotter because I do not see any political will in China and India to stop it from happening. So it will happen. It will not help that Europe, Japan and USA stop burning coal because even combined it is already less than China’s consumption and China is on track to more than double their coal burning in the next 10 years. It may increase fourfold by 2035 from 3.5 billion ton to 14 billion ton per year. For comparison the USA barely burns 1 billion tons of coal.

Right, this is piece of crap, EIA has a terrible history in predicting the future. The production curve has been flat for 7 straight years and strangely next year it will start to grow like in the good old time, unbelievable. Asides and again these curve include NGL which is only the growing part the crude oil is not growing at all, but this is not even mentioned

No signs of Peak Oil here. Bright future! (?)

in 1970 it took 5 years past the US peak of production to admit that US had peaked, for the world production it will probably take 10 years past peak to admit that it has peaked. Following their nice continuous growth prediction we should wonder why the price of oil went up 4 fold between 2004 and 2008 ?

this curve is only politic not geology

Tree...peak oil in one country does not always mean peak oil in other places. What is true in USA may not pass the test elsewhere. There more oil to be discovered in many other countries and under open seas. The world may still be pumping oil 100+ years from now from hard to reach places.

E-P...of course the daily production quantity may not be the same but new wells/shale/sands will be discovered and oil extraction will still be done in early 2100. Improved extraction methods will make it possible.

Bio-fuels are not the panacea that many thought it was. They produce as much if not more pollution than the fossil duels, as not as cheap and production will always be limited because planet Earth is needed for other purposes.

Electrified vehicles may be one of the best way to reduce liquid fuel consumption by up to 40% but resistance to change and current primitive technologies is slowing the transition which may take 4 to 5 decades instead of 2 to 3.

The current decade will see great strides for:

1. Lower cost smarter phones (2+ billions)
2. Lower cost 2D & 3D multi-purpose smart tablets (1 to 2 billions)
3. Wireless chargers (2+ billions) for 1) and 2).
4. Industrial 3D printers (many for automated parts production)
5. Electrified vehicles with wireless chargers (fixed and mobile)
6. Improved lower cost supercaps with 100+ Wh/Kg energy density.
7. Improved lower cost batteries with 500+ Wh/Kg energy density.
8. Much lower cost hydrogen production.
9. Improved lower cost, lighter FCs.
10.Improved much lower cost solar cells.
11.Improved lights (150+ lumens/Watt)
12. Lower cost composites for lighter vehicles.

As many of the above take 5 to 10 years to go into mass production, the next decade will benefit.

Peter..Crude oil production and consumption is no where near their worldwide peak. By 2040 or so, major consumption will be moved to China, India, Russia, Brazil etc but will progressively go down in Japan, USA and EU. Economies are shifting fast and moving away from traditional places. Unemployed people use less fossil fuel. It will take at least another century before we extract the last drop, specially from hard to get places near the poles and in very deep oceans. Tar sands and shales are not restricted to Alberta and a few NW States. Many more similar places will extract oil from shales and tar sands when conventional crude is harder to pump. More oil will be extracted from old wells with CO2 and chemicals when the price is right ($150 to $200/barrel?)

Progressive transition to electrified and FC vehicles and trains will ease oil demands by 2030 and thereafter. Other sources will also help to reach peak crude demands sometime between 2050 and 2100.

Other cleaner energy sources will make the front pages. Low cost hydrogen and improved storage will be around by 2020.

As typical, the know-nothings can't get two organizations straight. The Energy Information Agency, EIA, is a domestic governmental agency and part of the DOE. The International Energy Agency, IEA, is an international organization and a part of the UN agencies, I beleive.

Also as typical, the eco know-littles don't know that USA domestic production has begun to rise from a low of about 5 million bbls/day and is with in spitting distance of 8+ million barrels per day, the Peak of the 1976. Furthermore, we have grown synthetic fuel manufacture to an additional nearly 3 million bbls/day.

On top of that, despite our population rising to over 300 million, our oil demand is down from a peak of 21 million bbls/day in 2000, in a steady decline over the past decade to about 18 million bbls/day, a decline of 14%.

The result is that US imported oil demand is way down to about 7 million bbls/day.

In addition, the only major country to even approach the Kyoto targets is the USA, even though we never agreed to it. Our documented emissions are at mid 1990s levels approaching the target level of 1990.

Of course this is still all bovine scatology, because the bureaucrats still haven't managed to get any of the mighty Oaks and Redwooods to fill out their required paper work documenting how much CO2 they sequestered in their trunks, roots and leaves.

Since they never document natural sequestration, our enlarging forests, sequester more and more with the result the USA emits not a single gram of CO2 on net, and actually absorbs a lot from Eurasia to boot. Just as the peer reviewed and publsihed paers from the Princeton University teasm have tested and proved.

So much for the California loons and their AB32. The Peakist fools still spout Apocalyptic cant, even though the Peakist nonsense was concerned with sweet oil refining capacity, originally.